Quote from: Spendulus on Today at 02:40:41 AM

Quote from: af_newbie on Today at 12:33:01 AM

Quote from: Spendulus on July 17, 2020, 09:04:12 PM

Quote from: af_newbie on July 17, 2020, 05:24:57 PM

...

Americans should start wearing masks NOW or have 1M+ deaths by November, 2020, and 50M+ deaths by November 2021.

In the absence of a reliable vaccine, only a change in human behaviour (wearing PPE, social distancing) can stop the spread of this virus.

50+? Wow, that's way more than the 1918 Spanish Flu, 50-100M deaths for the entire world.

You seriously believe that number?

If nothing is done, by November we will get...

infected = (day count)^1.04

and almost everyone will be infected for the first time by November assuming 4% infection rate (it might be quite higher and non-linear, once schools open without any restrictions).

The mortality of second infections will be much higher as internal organs would already be permanently damaged by first infections.

I am assuming it will be around 50% for the people who get second infections. As we approach the herd immunity, the virus might mutate further as it will be harder for it to survive, so all bets are off.

People do not quite understand the gravity of the situation.

Okay, I see your method. I don't agree with it, but here is a suggestion. Why not look at major pandemics of the past, and various imputed real world growth rates?

You don't have a sound theoretical basis for an unbounded weak exponential growth rate.

I guess what I am saying is toss out all the garbage in the media, and go with sound modeling. Take for example this:

https://rt.live/

There is not much to disagree. Maybe the rates. There is plenty of irrational behaviour going on in the US. I guess more than the 'global' average. That is what is surprising.

Back in March I did similar extrapolation based on Italy's numbers and people propably thought I have lost my mind, but the numbers were
more or less correct.

Quote from: af_newbie on March 12, 2020, 12:22:19 AM

Quote from: bones261 on March 11, 2020, 11:28:09 PM

... We only have like 33 presumptive cases in the state that I am in at the moment, and I live in a rather large state.(area wise)

There will be about 10K cases in the US in a week or so. 100K in a month, 1M in 3 months, unless the US government steps in and shows some backbone, close the borders, suspend schools, people gatherings, airports, public transportation and pour money into the development of coronavirus vaccines.
...

Not sure why the handling of this pandemic has been made into a political issue. Too close to the election? Maybe Trump cannot admit the mistake he has made at the beginning by not mandating masks from the get go, and has cornered himself now in hopes this thing will go away by itself.

Well, it will, just like all wild fires do.

Here are some covid idiots for you (the Canadian Edition):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TInQ0CpSY6A

People do not understand how big oxygen, carbon dioxide, nucleotides, proteins, RNA molecules or corona viruses are.

When cornered they become agressive or don't want to talk about it. All suffer from cognitive dissonance.

Guess what BADeckers guys, condoms are also not 100% effective, just like the N95 masks. Yet people use them all the time.

BTW, looking at FL Rt=1.06 from rt.live I am officially scared for the rest of the country. Not sure if Rt from rt.live is helpful, NY Rt=1.07

I think it is just better to use https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries numbers and look at the rate of change at various points.