Quote from: af_newbie on Today at 02:34:39 PM

Quote from: Spendulus on Today at 02:01:48 PM

Quote from: af_newbie on Today at 11:54:10 AM

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BTW, looking at FL Rt=1.06 from rt.live I am officially scared for the rest of the country. Not sure if Rt from rt.live is helpful, NY Rt=1.07

I think it is just better to use https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries numbers and look at the rate of change at various points.

Okay, let's use that one.

It shows the US to have about a 4% death rate on those infected, so extrapolating that straight out over the 331M population would predict a US death count of 13m. But this isn't really accurate for several reasons. It assumes all infections are serious and reported, and it assumes the entire population is infected.

Still, that's 13m, not 50-100M. You can't get to 50-100m dead in the USA from this disease.

Taking into account the factors (bolded) a lot of people would suggest the actual death rate < 1%.

Are you still believing 50-100M?

These things overshoot, 10M dead will have repercussions that will lead to partial degradation of basic services. Not to mention possibility of secondary infections on the remaining 320M 'inoculated' population. Hence, my 50M+ dead count by Nov 2021......
But, like I said, if nothing is done, that is where we are headed.

And they also undershoot. Predictions of epidemics are notoriously bad. Hence my providing direct links to R statistical models.

But it does look like you'd have to have some huge secondary thing to get to 50M,doesn't it?