I did not consider what I said to have been dumb when I said it.
I thought that I was largely attempting to address the concept of the dead zone, and you had come up with a theory that speculated that the deadzone was NOT a deadzone.
With your more than 9 years in bitcoinlandia, you should already know that those theories of supposed everyone wanting to sell their BTC at the previous ATH had been presented numerous times before, and there tends to be little to no actual evidence to support those kind of selling at previous ATH theories beyond the fact that a lot of people spout them out as if there were facts to actually back them up. Am I missing something?
I actually think you are attributing something to my words that I did not mean. I am not predicting some doom and gloom scenario where it is incredibly hard to get past the ATH, or that a pullback after breaching it a little bit is going to be earth shattering.
Again I think back to the last even where bitcoin first re-crossed it's (what was in NOV14?) previous ATH ~1100 or whatever it was. There was a good pull back after that, and the general air was kinda mixed. There was a LOT of fear at that time. In retrospect the entire thing was very quick. But the road was a little bumpy around that price at the time.
I think there is a good chance we see something like that again. I dunno HOW good? 50/50? It doesn't really matter. But a LOT of people got into bitcoin in late 2017, and some of those have soured on it. We *will* have to chew through that resistance. And like I also said it might just get blown by as well.
But what i am doing is practicing putting on my fog lights now so that when it gets foggy I have the best chance at good outcomes.
Ok. Fair enough. Each of us has made our point in this regard, and it is possible that I may have misunderstood some of your emphasis in terms of how you might want to play this area that I consider to be a deadzone, which is in the territory of between $17,250 and $23,500.
If you have never sold BTC previously, and you consider yourself to be such a strong hand, I remain a bit unclear why you would be contemplating any kind of meaningful resistance within any BTC prices between $17,250 and $23,500?
Might you not be contradicting yourself a bit to be worried about such price arena?
I personally have suggested to people to take some BTC off the table at various points, which in this case might be before and after the deadzone, but not so much within the deadzone.... but sure, each BTC HODLer has their own way of dealing with how to manage their finances and their psychology, and surely planning does make it less likely that any BTC HODLer would run the risk of panicking.. whither that is selling too much too early or other strategic errors that might be too numerous to list.
By the way, as you may have recognized, I frequently talk about short-term BTC price movements in terms of 50/50 chances, but I don't talk that way about the deadzone... so that was probably why I was all on your case regarding the probabilities that you seemed to have been assigning to the deadzone, including the motives of various kinds of BTC HODLers that would supposedly be "feeling" like bag holders.
My own thesis continues to be that the Bagholder theory is a bunch of bullshit.
There are not so many people who supposedly bought BTC in the supra $14k to $20k range and are so fucking anxious to get rid of their BTC merely because all of a sudden they are in profits 3 years or more later. Sure, there might be some dumb asses who think about their BTC Holdings in such a way, but the vast majority who have not already been shaken from their BTC holdings would have had nearly 3 years to buy some more and to average their prices down, and so what, anyhow, if there are some folks who are whining about having a negative BTC portfolio because they sat on their hands for 3 years and did not do shit to bring down their average cost per BTC. They are aberrations and they are going to be out numbered by various other kinds of buyers, whether newbies or other kinds of buyers who are going to cause the BTC price to go shooting past the deadzone and the previous ATH.. whether it takes 3-4 months or more and whether there might be some headfakes within that deadzone.. once we get above $17,250, pretty much we are going to be going above $23,500 and largely you can count on it with higher than 50/50 odds.. one of the rare moments in bitcoin probabilities that odds are NO longer 50/50 or lower.
#DYOR
#YMMV
#BTMFD
# blah blah blah
(don't be listening to random peeps on the interwebs for BTC investment/trading advices)