But 250,000 x 18 million is 4.5 trillion that is 8 or 9 times what the top ten people in the world have.
The pump is harder.
4.5 trillion is 4.5 to 9% of the worlds wealth
I would argue that shift can't happen in less than 10 years. 12-18 months is a no go.
I believe that the 12-18 month cap for a high is much closer to 50,000 not 250,000
Of course I am barring the collapse of the USA dollar as the world standard for wealth.
If that happens hell BTC could be worth 1,000,000 in ten years or less.
this is from another post.
the argument I gave is btc can capture only a certain % of the world wealth.
it got close to .5% in 2017
I simply do not see it going past 1% or maybe 40-60k
But there are some interesting assumptions in this idea from my vantage point. This idea seems to rely on the basis that wealth is a zero sum game. As in - value cannot be created, but has to arise directly from existing value.
But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it. It will rise Z when X value is put in.
Bitcoin is currently worth ~200 billion. How much money has to flow in for it to be worth 1 trillion? I do not believe the answer is 800billion. Similarly the sales would equal MUCH LESS than 200 billion if bitcoin was to fail and go to zero.
While it's true that smaller sums of money can have big impacts on market caps, in the long run it is most suitable to look at market cap as 'real value', especially in a liquid system with many participants such as bitcoin.
By the way Philiphma, your estimate of total global wealth is 25 to 50 trillion. A quick google search tells me it is more in the 300 to 400 trillion range.