Quote from: cAPSLOCK on Today at 02:14:07 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on July 31, 2020, 11:44:27 PM

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on July 31, 2020, 10:51:57 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on July 31, 2020, 10:04:14 PM

But 250,000 x 18 million is 4.5 trillion that is 8 or 9 times what the top ten people in the world have.

The pump is harder.

4.5 trillion is 4.5 to 9% of the worlds wealth

I would argue that shift can't happen in less than 10 years. 12-18 months is a no go.

I believe that the 12-18 month cap for a high is much closer to 50,000 not 250,000

Of course I am barring the collapse of the USA dollar as the world standard for wealth.

If that happens hell BTC could be worth 1,000,000 in ten years or less.

this is from another post.

the argument I gave is btc can capture only a certain % of the world wealth.

it got close to .5% in 2017

I simply do not see it going past 1% or maybe 40-60k

But there are some interesting assumptions in this idea from my vantage point. This idea seems to rely on the basis that wealth is a zero sum game. As in - value cannot be created, but has to arise directly from existing value.

But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it. It will rise Z when X value is put in.

Bitcoin is currently worth ~200 billion. How much money has to flow in for it to be worth 1 trillion? I do not believe the answer is 800billion. Similarly the sales would equal MUCH LESS than 200 billion if bitcoin was to fail and go to zero.

I think I might want to look at this thing the other way around...

I wonder once you take away Satoshi and Hal's family, what the distribution of the really big bitcoin whales looks like. For example are there only a very few people with say 100,000 bitcoin?

If so bitcoin would have to be a half million USD for people with that much BTC to reach Koch brothers level.

I have no issue with the short term idea of 50k late 2020 or early 2021
I just don't see it going much past it.

Most of us are wannabes and not sitting on 1000btc or more.

Think of a top end guy seeing me come at him with my 100 btc stash. (100 x 300000 = 30 million) While he may have 5 billion I can cause him grief with my 30 million.

So I listed the top 10 guys I think there are 2000 billionaires.
lets argue they own 16 million btc and we the little guy own a total of 2 million btc. I propose they have a vested interest in not letting us catch up.

2 million x 11,000 = 22,000,000,000 22 billion
They have 8x that or 176 billion

Yeah they want more since the average billionaire lives with the "nothing counts but more" motto

They absolutely will control the rise so a
bump to 55,000 is allowed to happen

The lower group now has 110 billion
The top level now has 880 billion.
I believe they the top owners would not crash it out at that point. They have most of the coin and they can take profit but they don't have to.

  If we move to 330,000 a coin the lower group now has 660 billion
They the top group have 5280 billion Almost certainly they would be really happy with 5280 billion vs the current 176 billion.

The problem is I do think we that lower 1/9 of the coins would look to be a threat at this point. They would sell off and not let us grow this high.

   Since we would leave the working class and be the "new rich"
  I suggest they cap this run at 50 k to 100 k vs 250k to 330k. Just so we that lower section do not get too independent and or too rich.

I still think the 2020/2021 upside is 50-60k but what the fuck do I really know.

A) I don't have direct contact with the top coin holders
B) I don't have knowledge of the cover virus
C) I don't know the results of the 2020 election.

Just because I think the ultra rich would cap this to 50-60k does not mean I am correct.

   Those 2000 billionaires could be very diverse in their btc/crypto holdings. If only 10 to 100 hold the coins it means they are passing the other 1900 to 1990 the billionaires so those billionaires could want to buy coins to maintain their places in the billionaire club. That would mean they would not look at the lower 1/9 gaining as much as they would if the coins are more widely dispersed among them.

That case could and would allow for a crazy jump in price. I better hodl till 2021 no matter what. Grin

at bitserve see how many hold 1000 coins or more if it is smaller by far maybe the crazy number of 250,000 to 500,000 happens.

This is so fun I read it 3 times. I have NO IDEA what you are talking about though.

I write James Joyce stream of consciousness style. It often needs corrections.
I corrected it in the quote above.
I like technical analysis , but I often go completely outside that box as it lacks the parameters that I mention above.

I am merely have a bit of fun here as I still am hoping my 50-60k guess is too low.