Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: Monthly updates and thoughts about the market
by
fillippone
on 02/08/2020, 17:15:43 UTC
⭐ Merited by Lucius (1)


Corona is still growing in size worldwide. However, it appears to have little or no negative impact on the financial markets. The "promise" of central banks worldwide to continue to provide support seems sufficient for investors to have a positive outlook for the future.
At the European level, a corona fund has been approved containing 750 billion in aid to the affected countries.

(These articles are always written by a close friend of me)

This is a weird statement.
It is almost impossible not to recognize the negative impact Corona had in financial markets: the sheer amount of money Central Banks poured on the market acted like a giant fire retardant. The problem is still there, but the immediate and most dramatic consequences (for the financial markets) are only delayed. No surprise the everything rallied: fixed income, equity and commodities (read:gold) are all rallying toward their ATH.
This is perfectely rational: if CB keep printing money, it's inevitable the loss of purchasing power, and inflation is going to materialise, sooner or later. So the only place were you don't want your money to be is in cash: "cash is trash" (Ray Dalio) is the new "cash is king". One another way of looking at this is the inflation is already here: it's not markets are at their all time high, but the unit of measure of such markets, money, is at his historical low: it's not that Gold is becoming more precious (or APPL more profitable- ok I might have picked the wrong example here), is that we are measuring it with a shorter and shorter meter.
Sooner or later this decoupling between real and financial markets will close, and this will not be pleasent.
Luckily, if you are reading this, you probably know how to hedge against this.