Quote from: Dr.Zaius on March 21, 2014, 08:56:11 PM

Quote from: BitDreams on March 03, 2014, 11:19:31 PM

As fictitious as we might believe mtGox price performance was over this past month it still played well with technical analysis. The green trend line was drawn back to the one-penny low on mtGox in October of 2010 (also coincides with 2.382 fib on the andrews fork I have tried to center on the chart). Even under all but total collapse that green dashed one-penny trend line, hinted at in an earlier post as 'your worst fears', that one-penny trendline held.

Traderview has Bitstamp exchange listed so I'll update this chart using the new symbol but for now, so long Gox charts - http://ponziunit.blogspot.com/2013/11/btcusd-using-traderviewcom-charting-tool.html :

You've just proved why technical analysis is akin to magic and tarrot card reading. You managed to draw up a chart that fits trend lines on an absolutely dead and not functioning exchange, and still come up with a price prediction. Chart's are nothing more then past last sale reference points. Staring at one long enough will eventually convince one of "patterns."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia

TA practitioners and sages eventually all suffer from Apophenia. They can't even help themselves at some point, they will chart a cockroach running up a wall to look for patterns.

Understanding why the bitcoin price was unsustainable is pretty basic, 3600 coins are created daily out of thin air. In November and December those coins were worth $5million a day, miners just couldn't resist hitting the bid. When you realize 80% of the supply is held by some ~200 individuals, you quickly comprehend how easy it is to manipulate the price. Mt. Gox had no issues paying fiat out to insiders when they wanted to cashout, but everyone else was held up by compliance/funds shortage. Same thing that Bitstamp does.

The Slippery Slope Million Dollar Logistic Model, is based on the fallacy of what occured in the past must continue in the future.

Some people will never find value in technical analysis and I'm not going to try to convince you it has any value either. I believe people often look deeper into technical analysis than they should. I'm dealing in facts, current price relative to previous price. I can make projections which is certainly not a fact, but each moment a new price posts, I can re-evaluate my position based on being more on target or more off target and then I may adjust my positions accordingly.

The only question I have for you Dr.Zaius is do you set stop losses and profit taking targets?