Quote from: cbeast on September 29, 2011, 09:54:29 AM

Using this analogy, if bitcoin is taking the place of the internet and miners are the dotcoms, then many miners will likely quit at the 10% level. The internet itself did not die after the dotcom bubble. Bitcoin is too good an idea, like the internet, to die.

Indeed. The dotcom bubble recovered eventually and the same will happen with Bitcoin. Due to Bitcoin's size we're simply looking at a much faster recovery in real time. It's not going to take years because Bitcoin time is faster, we're looking at months. I'm expecting a recovery soon, but within 6 months for sure.

Only thing that can really stop this is a blow to the fundamentals of Bitcoin, which are legality and technical reliability. As long as those are in good shape we will very, very likely see Bitcoin grow as both a store of value and a medium of exchange. And this will also mean that the price will eventually recover, big time.

On another note, I don't really think the last bubble was the biggest bubble yet. It was the biggest bubble so far, but it's only the first real hype wave. As long as the fundamentals stay strong we're bound to have a larger hype wave eventually. Bitcoin is still relatively unknown even though there has been coverage. It's not the same as "the dotcom bubble" because everyone knew about Internet companies at the time.

But the success of Bitcoin won't come by itself. It requires that people continue to build the infrastructure, and that it stays legal and the cryptography stays solid. It also requires that Bitcoiners start marketing it more heavily. If people don't know about it or how it can help them, it's not going to spread. This is why projects such as the Wall St. marketing project are actually really important.