Quote from: mu_enrico on Today at 03:52:11 AM

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Give a monkey enough darts and they'll beat the market. So says a draft article by Research Affiliates highlighting the simulated results of 100 monkeys throwing darts at the stock pages in a newspaper. The average monkey outperformed the index by an average of 1.7 percent per year since 1964. That's a lot of bananas!

What is all this monkey business? It started in 1973 when Princeton University professor Burton Malkiel claimed in his bestselling book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, that "A blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper's financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts."

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This phenomenon, about random dart throwers, can beat financial analyst already tested multiple times:

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To test their idea, the writers threw darts at a stock list in the newspaper. From those random hits they built a portfolio to stack up against highflying financial elites.

Those elites meet at the Sohn Investment Conference, held each May in New York. The attendees are full-time active investors, people who spend 365 days and nights a year thinking hard about what investments to own and why.

So how did the dart-throwing journalists do this year? "The results were brutal," recounts Spencer Jakab of the Journal.

The random writer picks beat the pros by 27 percentage points in the year through April 22. "Only 3 of 12 of the Sohn picks even outperformed the S&P 500 SPX, +1.00%," Jakab said.

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Why does this thing happen? Well, there is a theory called "Random Walk Theory."

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Random walk theory suggests that changes in stock prices have the same distribution and are independent of each other. Therefore, it assumes the past movement or trend of a stock price or market cannot be used to predict its future movement. In short, random walk theory proclaims that stocks take a random and unpredictable path that makes all methods of predicting stock prices futile in the long run.

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Okay, the above examples are for stocks, but it should be somewhat applicable to the cryptocurrency market. What do you think?
Bonus, notable argument by a skeptic:

Quote from: Eureka_07 on August 20, 2020, 12:20:30 AM

but these data can help us make better predictions.
Predictions backed up by relevant data are way better than predictions without any basis. hmmmm

Reading your article reminded me of the movie :
Wolf of the wall street

The person there said how: No One can predict what is going to happen to the stocks , literally no one. (Therefore all these predictions were a sham)

I do understand that there are certain factors that can change the way price changes like:

Bitcoins being banned by some country
Mining farms being seized

Etc...

These numerous news can help us predict the bitcoin movement to an extent because its obvious , therefore i do believe that we can do that to an extent for sure . But predicting it point to point takes a lot of time and effort ( even luck) therefore is dissolute for longer term.