Quote from: suchmoon on September 01, 2020, 03:11:55 PM

Assuming full 14 activity points every two weeks, there are only 8 points to be gained in the 19th period (as evidenced by your activity score of 1022) so I think that means only 8/(1030-775+1) = 3.125% of wannabe-Legendaries can be sure.

Now you're assuming theymos made a linear scale for the chance of reaching Legendary between 775-1030 Activity.
From what I've seen, I expect something like this:

Quote from: theymos on September 11, 2019, 01:17:29 AM

b*(1-0.15*^s/_b)