tl;dr It is quite possible to see a bigger bull run than we expect, like 2017's Autumn 6x. So, my price tag for selling something this year will be between 40K and 60K. I know this sounds crazy, but it is better to be prepared than surprised selling too early, isn't it?
Of course, if you hold onto all of your BTC or you shave off a bit of your stash along the way UP, - either way could work out.
Let's say that you had a system that you were planning to sell 5% or 10% of your stash every time the BTC price doubled, once the BTC price got above a certain price point - so in terms of establishing that price point to start your selling (or shaving off), you look at your own situation, but if you believe that there might certain BTC price areas that are quickly passed through, then maybe be you would sell less in those areas (but still sell a small amount, just in case), and if you believe that there might be price areas that could be a bit of a blow off top, you might sell a bit more in those perceived blow off top areas, but again maybe not selling everything - because your time horizon is longer and you are expecting to go through another BTC cycle anyhow.
Either way, maybe you are not selling a lot of your BTC at any point, but instead you continue to sell a bit of your BTC stash at various price points along the way (whether those are 25% price appreciation points, 50% or 100% or some other needed price appreciation that causes you to shave a bit off of your stash) in order that you will not feel bad if the BTC price were to end up reversing in its direction before it reaches your upper selling price target - whether that is $47k, or $93k $242k or whatever the BTC target that you might have to make a bit of a BIGGER sell off (if that were to happen to be your goal).
Sure, we have discussed previously, that you might have goals to sell higher amounts such as 20% or 40% of your stash at various price points, but you still might not be planning on selling all of it at any one point, even if you might be planning to take off BIGGER amounts at various price points.
You still could arrange such BTC selling that you have a lot of BTC in any event because you would not be selling large portions of your BTC stash along the way but merely selling some of your BTC stash for a kind of insurance purposes.. So, if you have a time target to keep accumulating BTC through 2030 or some further off date like that, you might NOT be incentivized to sell large portions of your BTC stash, even if you have already been into BTC for a decent amount of time because you feel that you have not really acquired enough.. but that disincentive to sell everything still might not justify HODLING onto everything and NOT selling any BTC - which surely has worked for some people just to HODL through the volatile periods because there HODL period is at least 4 more years into the future.. and of course, the longer the timeline the more justification for just HODLing through it all (and skipping any shaving off, however tempting that might be).
. It is elementary java script coding, but it gives a lot of room for experimenting. With it I can plan both sells and rebuys. For example, I can set initial sell sum, which will increase with a specified percentage (with experiments I found to fit best is like 8.2% increase of the first sale amount with every 1% increase of the price). Simultaneously, the calculator shows given percentage drop prices, say 30% below the top, so that I could rebuy with profit which is dynamically shown. My plan is to sell almost all for $6 mil, and the lower plans are used to gain like 500K profits while buyng back all of my bitcoins. I have several plans for sell/rebuys which are easily modified according to market's dynamics, so that I guarantee $1 mil, in case I fail to profit enough and rebuy. I tested it with my mined eth's and it definitely works well, although I have no plans of rebuying that shitcoin again, just for the experiment.