Quote from: cypherdoc on September 30, 2011, 03:37:28 AM

@miscreanity: you know, i haven't read a post of yours for a long while now that i agree with more. everything you said in that last post is true and we agree on alot of things.

where we do disagree though is what you said yourself. we're in a new age of volatility where i think markets will prevent the Fed and gov't from walking the thin narrow line you think they'll be able to in order to achieve price stability. that would be too easy. i believe in cycles where markets swing from extreme to extreme, ie, boom bust, panic to greed, giddiness to despair. this is how traders make money. they will force these swings to strip the little guys of their money. we're at a price peak now; we'll be at a price trough in a few years.

I think it's hilarious that we agree on so much, yet have such a profound difference on one or two niggling points.

The Fed's purpose was to mediate those cycles. Also, remember that there is no single cycle: there are many for each sector and at different scales. Dismissing the multi-generational cycles in favor of a yearly cycle is folly. The former overrides the latter every time.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 30, 2011, 04:28:13 AM

... its clearly obvious that all markets including pm's are moving inversely to the USD almost on a tick for tick basis. this is the inverse correlation i have been talking about. IMO this means the USD is the dog and all other markets including gold are the tails.

The dollar has been declining for a century. Gold has been rising for a century. This inverse correlation is nothing new: it's been present for longer than anyone reading this has been alive.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 30, 2011, 01:54:32 PM

i put on my first UST short via TBT a few minutes ago. there have been a couple of compelling articles published recently about a double top in UST's and you know how i like technicals. THIS is what could be different than 2008. and i think it will also help in creating a stronger USD.

Welcome to the club! I still prefer buying puts on TLT, but to each his own. I'm also still wary of committing in size - there could very easily be a spike that rattles investors and triggers stop-loss orders.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 30, 2011, 02:16:03 PM

if the bankers have already been bailed out (debatable yes) then a deflationary crash would allow them to buy things up at the bottom for pennies on the USD, yes? at least those able to survive. i think they've made plans for this scenario.

Yet the banks are still exhibiting signs of stress (piles of bad debt still on their books, major civil and possibly criminal lawsuits, political and public ire, etc.). Apparently, they haven't been bailed out enough. I'd be more interested in knowing who owns the real assets and gold than pieces of paper.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 30, 2011, 02:19:21 PM

another deflationary development: junk bonds have gone into the tank since July. small businesses? toast.

where's the growth and jobs there? inflation? i think not.

Conflating asset value deflation with monetary inflation results in nonsensical conclusions.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 30, 2011, 03:11:11 PM

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/09/shilling-sees-evidence-of-deflation-in.html

"the Fed is out of bullets"

They still have crude instruments - backed into a corner with nothing other than fists, a booming voice and a printing press. Lie to the world so reason is drowned out, beat the banks into providing funding for gov't and print to keep the economy moving.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 30, 2011, 03:51:18 PM

and its forming a picture perfect ascending wedge. we know how those resolve.

And we know that chart formations are 100% guaranteed. "Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns."

Should I point at the bear trap now?

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 30, 2011, 04:21:56 PM

http://www.forbes.com/sites/investopedia/2011/09/29/should-you-follow-soros-out-of-gold/

As mentioned earlier in this thread: Soros dumped almost all holdings in the GLD ETF. This is what has been hawked as "gold". He immediately turned around and bought gold mining shares with the proceeds.

The article plays on ignorance of the dichotomy in paper and physical gold, as well as the difference between bullion and mining shares. It is nothing more than a plausibly authoritative-sounding piece of propaganda that anyone who understands how the precious metals industries work can see right through. Therein lies the power of the post - very few people understand the precious metals industries.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 30, 2011, 04:56:21 PM

i am an employer. i have never had such wage control power since i've been in business since 1993.

i don't offer health care or a pension plan yet i have dozens of apps for any openings i advertise. i'm also seeing older ppl enter the workforce that will accept lower pay than younger ppl b/c of the squeeze Ben's put on them.

Have you run numbers on the wonderous forced healthcare plan? Does your business manufacture or produce anything real?

Desperation indeed. Let's get non-linear. What do the people who don't have jobs do? If they can't support themselves, is it reasonable to expect that many will move back with family - perhaps with those same older people you're employing? This is a foregone conclusion, as it's already happening. The entrepreneurial-types might try to stake their claim in another country that has better economic prospects than the dying western nations, which completely removes that higher level of productivity from the domestic pool.

Now how do households function with the additional financial burden of extra members? Savings can be tapped to make up any difference, greater wages or benefits might be demanded, etc. On the plus side, those unemployed who double up could provide support to the income-earner(s). If that support is not financial, the aforementioned results are still likely.

What seems like a boon to (non-manufacturing or agricultural) business owners now has a greater likelihood of turning out to be a pitfall later.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 30, 2011, 04:56:21 PM

this whole discussion presupposes that they'll have a choice in this whole deflationary event. they don't.

In the end, no. But they've been quite adept at putting doomsday off for quite some time now, haven't they?

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 30, 2011, 04:56:21 PM

Politics, the sheer size of the bad debts, the rioting that you'll see if they try (Middle East) and self preservation. if they destroy the USD what would be their function? what about the billions of USD wealth these bankers have?

So linear and US-centric. Banks don't operate in the USD arena alone. They also deal in gold, among other assets.

Next: if a billionaire were to see 50% depreciation his USD holdings, he'd just be a half-billionaire. He won't be hurt by that, unless you consider construction of a man-made island critical to his quality of life. On the other hand, a baby-boomer with $100,000 retirement fund losing 50% of that could mean the difference between being able to retire or working to his dying days. Going more extreme, a 90% depreciation in USD means the billionaire is only a mega-millionaire and the former retiree might as well be penniless.

Stick with the rioting.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 30, 2011, 05:02:57 PM

oh geez. the gold/silver share setup i was seeing this am and a few posts ago is playing out.

NEM has clearly broken the perfect ascending wedge from this AM and is now heading down. they walked it up to the top of the leader board to get everyone in and now they'll take em down.

Have you been paying attention to what day it is? I'll give you a hint: it's the last day of the month. It also happens to be the last day of the quarter. Reports on performance are due, which means profits are taken to shore up balances that make clients think happy gumdrop thoughts when they get their statements. Anyone who's been trading longer than a few years ought to recognize these patterns.

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 30, 2011, 05:27:24 PM

and you wonder why your wealth is slowly slipping away?

Hmm...

No.

That sure doesn't look like 2008, does it?

Since you admire technicals: a new high in September 2010, a higher low in March 2011 (from previous low in January 2010) with a supported retest three months later, another new high this month... should we contrast this with the broader equity markets? Because technical chart patterns are guaranteed, of course - especially short-term ones.

Did you even bother to take into account dividends? Quit making this so easy for me - you were offering genuine challenges recently.