So, how can one honestly recommend investing into bitcoin as a hedge against a possible dollar collapse, as a way of becoming a millionaire, or whatever the "salesmen" are saying these days? It is like buying a ticket for a crazy lottery that does not tell its clients what are the odds and prizes, and may or may not be seeking to lose money.
Very nice post about expected value etc. . Seems to be generating a lot of reaction, probably because you are touching the core of investment.
The thing is: of which investment DO we know the expected value? Every investment has its risks. I'll admit that those risks are way way bigger in the crypto space than for other assets, but I am not aware of any investment with an expected value that is positive in real terms (inflation-adjusted).
For sure, if you prime concern is capital preservement, and you dislike volatility, you might want to stay clear of cryptos (or only allocate a small percentage of your capital).
But every other investment has its risks too. Housing is probably one of the safest investments you can do, but its valuation depends on the purchasing power of the citizens, lending practices, political stability, taxing policy and worst-case-scenario: nationalization. Gold used to be the safe-haven investment, but with cryptos around, that might change. And while not theoretically guaranteed, I think a long history teaches us that the expected value of fiat is negative, though you typically have low volatility.
That expression .. ."dont let the perfect be the enemy of the good."
Didn't know that expression, but certainly I should have listened to it many times during my life...