Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on Today at 03:38:03 AM

Quote from: Bossian on September 21, 2020, 10:58:12 AM

Why would they suddenly become correlated when it wasn't the case in 2019, 2018 and of course 2017 Huh

... manipulation via leverage of cash futures makes it inevitable that powerful (government money) forces who would rather BTC didn't present a haven for fast money looking for uncorrelated assets in times of crises.

... they've been doing this with gold and silver since LTCM derivatives implosion and the Asian financial crises circa 1998

I agree that government and even traditional banking institutional systems have a lot of incentives to create and to use a variety of financial tools (new ones at their disposal) to manipulate BTC in such a way that causes BTC to NOT appear any different from any other kind of investment (meaning that bitcoin is not necessarily correlated even though they are attempting to make BTC look as if it were correlated), and sure they are going to try and sure they are going to give it every last boyscout effort to accomplish - but are they going to succeed?

That is the million dollar question. What do you believe Marcus?

I am thinking that you can keep the BTC price within a range, until you can't.

We have witnessed those same kinds of "keeping BTC within a range" issue several times in the past with BTC... at around $500 in early 2016 and at around $2k in mid 2017.. and surely there are other historical BTC price examples of the bearwhales losing control of the situation and unable to keep BTC prices down any lower for any longer.

Bearwhales tried as fuck to keep BTC prices as low as they can and for as long as they can and below certain threshold points, but they lost control... over and over.. This time is different?

Sure, they will try again, and they likely are trying as we post these message.

Concededly, these days bearwhales have more tools that they can attempt to play to push the BTC price down, and if they are attempting to print BTC that they do not have, they make well find themselves on the wrong side of a trade, too, which could be quite costly, and sure there is also more money in bitcoin now, too, including some BIGGER players like Microstrategy and some other folks who come from the traditional financial sector and who are taking various degrees of long BTC positions. Are some of those traditional financial players just going to roll over if attempts at BTC manipulation are out of control or based on fractional reserve BTC (rehypothication), and are some of those folks who are investing into BTC continuing to buy BTC behind the scenes, after they have already taken a stake in BTC. Have the HODLers and buyers of BTC run out of money to buy MOAR BTC? Are they able, or not, to push BTC prices up and/or to stop BTC prices from being manipulated down, staying flat or going below certain price points... ?

BTC's 200 week moving average, for example, has been going up nearly $200 per week in recent times, and currently it is at about $6,700.
It was at about $5,500 during the March 12, 2020 crash(dipped below $5,500 for fewer than 8 days).
It was at about $3,100 in December 2018, during the lowest BTC price point on that correction (did not get broken).
It was at nearly $1,200 in December 2017 during the most recent ATH of $19,666.
It was less than $300 in October 2015, at the start of the 2017 bullrun (that largely took two years to play out with a culmination of a blow off top from October to December 2017).

So, sure, the powers that be could attempt to manipulate BTC prices down, keep them sideways, or disallow them from going up to cause such BTC prices to appear as if they were correlated to traditional asset classes, such as equities and gold.

Surely, I am not ruling out the possibility that they could continue to have short term success.. but how long can they keep it up? 1 year? 2 years? 4 years? Is it possible?

Personally, I doubt that they are going to be successful to continue to argue that correlation actually exists beyond having some evidence to make short-term claims and for those failing and refusing to zoom out or to actually see BTC's actual price performance rather than what they wish it to be based on short-term charts.