No wonder the exchanges' reserves have come down so much this year. Just a couple of million more and we get our supply shortage event.
You said in one sentence what it took me a JJG sort of novella to try to say above.

Not looking forward to that.
IMHO, what is happening (my hypothesis): faced with constant withdrawals, exchanges instituted a scheme where they are getting re-hypothecated bitcoin from the likes of blockfi, celsius, nexo and crypto.com
That's why price does not react to bullish events, as long as their "supply" is virtually unlimited.
The question is: do you trust that each btc on exchange 'actually' represents a "real" bitcoin or a bitcoin genuinely "borrowed" from the companies mentioned above?
I strongly suspect that it is not the case.
It is probably much, much worse.
There is not going to be any supply shortage as long as the 'scheme' continues unabated.