Quote from: South Park on September 30, 2020, 03:59:24 PM

Quote from: Saint-loup on September 25, 2020, 09:54:14 PM

Quote from: arbmarket on September 24, 2020, 04:58:32 PM

I know they all have an edge. I am talking about a game where the stated odds are 49.7% meaning a house edge on of 0.3%. In that environment what are the odds of losing 11 in a row? 17 in a row? or 6 out of 7 bets repeatedly?

I should preface this with that I did have a couple incredible runs on this game in the past. Variance just catching up?

Losing 11 times in a row at a dice game is something that happens very rarely.
You should think about a tree diagram
You have 50.3% chances to lose at the first round, 50.3% x 50.3% the 2 first rounds, 50.3%³ to lose the 3 first rounds etc.
It means you have (50.3%)¹¹=0.052% chances to lose 11times in a row

   win (49.7%x49.7%)
win (49.7%)
   lose (49.7%x50.3%)

   win (50.3%x49.7%)
lose (50.3%)
   lose (50.3%x50.3%)

While you are right that something like that will happen very rarely the more you play the bigger the chances you begin to see events like that, for example a person that has never gambled has very low probabilities to see something like that on his first 11 tries at playing a dice game and it will be very remarkable if that happened to him, but if you have played dice hundreds of thousands of times then the chances you see something like this happening to you go up significantly.

Yes you're right, this is the probability to lose 11times in a row when you play 11times in a row AFAIK but if you play many times odds to get a losing streak of 11 loss will be different IMO.