Quote from: netrin on October 01, 2011, 01:17:11 AM

Hey miscreanity, three days ago you linked to the "Gold Stupidity" video, but it had since been pulled. I found an alternate copy. Perhaps ya'll can appreciate this.

Awesome, thanks!

Quote from: cypherdoc on October 01, 2011, 07:39:16 AM

@misreality: i've been sitting here shaking my head chuckling to myself trying to figure out how best to respond to your post. i finally determined that the warnings i wrote yesterday regarding the intraday action in the markets went right over your head. i take back that compliment i gave you which is probably the reason for your blindfolders. or perhaps your giddiness was b/c the pain in the PM space has eased just a bit the past coupla days.

you have no idea about the pain that is about to befall you once again. you and MatthewLaMe.

Darn, I've lost the praise of someone who ignores reality. Mortifying. Oh - you might not want to admit that you're cackling to yourself like a crazy person.

Daily technicals flip faster than the latest GPU cores and that's supposed to be significant? Fundamentals are screaming that any point below $1,650 in gold is a buy (same for <$32 silver), widespread shortages of silver are present even without public participation and I don't use anything leveraged. Aside from the options, I can sit happily and let everything ride without chasing paper trails. Even then, the options have at least another quarter to show a positive run. I have the luxury of time while the banks and western world in general are rapidly running out of it.

No pain here, but thanks for your repeat presumption. I've previously stated that I am accumulating (bullion & equities without leverage) much more than trading. I'm patient enough to wait for the big moves to come to me instead of the other way 'round. Those open equity orders weren't filled on the last dip, but are still waiting in staggered tranches. Another spike down and it'll be kid-in-a-candystore time.

Quote from: cypherdoc on October 01, 2011, 07:40:26 PM

LOL! Up 77%!

OMG UR RITE SILVER WORHTLESS END OF WRLD!!!1!oneoneone

Now let's take a breather and zoom out for a better perspective.

Oh, the dollar is only up 35% over 3 years - the scale big money pays attention to. With all the hootin' and hollerin' and panic selling to boost the USD, that's as far as it could go? Even from a purely technical standpoint, that's sad. The emperor has no clothes, but he's running around screaming as loud as he can that he does.

Going further back to prior peaks in the USD, we can see that it was around 120 in 2001 and as high as 164 in early 1985. Over 16 years elapsed during the USD drop from 164 to 78.5 before that move's 50% retracement was tested. It sure does take a long time for these kind of actions to take place. Troubles and crises seem to be hitting harder and faster, though.

Looking at the USD:SILVER ratio in 2001, the dollar was 120 and silver was about 5, making the ratio approximately 24:1. A jump in the ratio from 1.5 to 2.6 is 1.1 - compare that to 24. That's about 4.5% difference; barely worth getting out of bed for. This should impress upon you the importance of greater scales and that they must be taken into account even when looking at the dailies, unless your goal is to stay glued to the charts.

In addition, USD (and UST) volume declined heavily during the latest rise compared to the prior peak. Volume has also declined to very low levels in gold and silver. Trends experiencing declining volume eventually reverse - continuation is unsustainable, just as continual accumulation of debt can't last. To reiterate - using a log scale for charting keeps price moves in perspective when there is rising volume because of increasing participation. Just look at the volume numbers for the past two months (one month for USD) - records across the board by orders of magnitude!

This thread has become my primary form of financial entertainment, along with Money McBags. Deflationists are as amusing as permabull gold bugs (and just as dangerous).