Quote from: vga on March 06, 2014, 04:24:56 AM

But there must be many other who believe it is an ok gamble, correct? My contract would just be for one year. I already have a small contract but I can now get many more gh/s for the amount that I paid for the first contract. It's sort of a way of "averaging down". It's makes me tempted. I also find the exchanges to be off putting as I don't want to hook up my bank account to it, etc..

I don't think anyone who actually does some prognosis will see it as an ok gamble. If you make some graphs you quickly learn that there is no way the winnings can compensate for the lossings.

msc did have a good idea, that is to invest 100% back into rrp for the first, i don't know, 1/4 to 1/2 of the contract time to build up momentum. But you need to do this from start and i guess the new 1-year contracts hurt this strategy. And it is still incredibly risky. I won't take you to the moon and the road is filled with landmines. All the fuckups, like not delivering rrp for a month, have a compound effect on the rest of the contract period. It puts you on a different curve that goes to zero much faster.
I calculated that under current difficulty rising you need to reinvest about 70% of your earnings into rrp to have a constant payout. But that does not calculate in te fact that cloudhashing can deliver the rrp much later. In that case the 70% becomes only half as valuable and you lose for sure.

The real problem here is that cloudhashing has manipulation grips on their system. Basically, by delaying rrp and inventing a price/GH/s they can make you earn as little as they want. This whole rrp business is very very opaque and basically you can't know what they are doing and what effect it will have on your earnings. Turns out the effect is only negative. Your earnings only go down from the projection, never up.