Quote from: TwitchySeal on Today at 10:31:52 PM

For someone that is usually so pragmatic

This is new. Usually, I am accused of being an idealistic dreamer. ;-)

Quote from: TwitchySeal on Today at 10:31:52 PM

...I'm surprised to see you going down the poll-denier path.

I’m not sure why you are arguing about the media polls with me, when your own statement was that Trump was an underdog in the betting markets.

Quote from: TwitchySeal on Today at 10:31:52 PM

The final 2016 betting markets and most models had Trump between a 2-1 and 3-1 underdog to become president.

A part of my point was that if PN7’s numbers are correct (probably—haven’t checked—don’t really care), Trump is less of an underdog now than he was in 2016. And—guess who became U.S. president in 2016.

Quote from: nullius on Today at 09:59:33 PM

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on Today at 05:55:39 PM

This is probably not the best time to be getting into an even money bet for Trump to win. The betting markets are pricing a ~2/3 chance that Biden will win.

A deeper point is that this is a plebiscite on Trump:

Quote from: 2020 United States Presidential Ballot (translated from pretenses, to the political reality of voters’ thought processes)

How do you feel about Trump?

☐ LOVE TRUMP!!! 🤩
☐ HATE TRUMP!!! 😡

That is not very good for Biden, in and of itself.

Trump has fans. A large number of Americans think that he’s an awe-inspiring hero. I think that that’s ridiculous; but it is an objective fact that large numbers of people see him that way.

Trump has haters. A large number of Americans think that he is the devil. I also think that that’s ridiculous; but...

Does anybody see Biden as a hero? I mean, seriously. LOL.

Does anybody see Biden, personally, as the devil? Of course, there are many Americans who see the Democratic Party as the devil. (Same as for the Republican Party.) But the Democratic Party is not Biden. A political party does not move people as personality does—not in either direction.

Objectively, the candidates are not so different. The followers of Pepsi-Lenin (D) scream that Coke-Kerensky (R) is a “right-wing extremist”, and the followers of Coke-Kerensky (R) scream that Pepsi-Lenin (D) has betrayed the revolution. The practical difference between them is negligible. But that is not how ~~votaries~~ voters perceive it; and the above sums up how most Americans are evaluating their choice for this vote.

Quote from: eddie13 on Today at 09:03:22 PM

~~biden~~ anti-trump betters

Well said.

All of this is consistent with my point: Many Americans were disillusioned—literally, they stopped seeing the illusion of importance in the vote. Trump got them re-engaged. Good job!

Quote from: nullius on October 16, 2020, 02:10:33 PM