I look at all the material that has Biden winning but then I look outside at all the Trump people. I haven't seen people gather for Biden anywhere here. I believe Florida at least is going to Trump.
There are some houses with Biden/Harris stuff on them though. It's not as one sided as 2016.
The real question is who do you think is more qualified to figure out the opinion of ~150 million people? Polling companies with a proven track record over thousands of elections - some spanning more than 5 decades, or you when you look outside?
I mentioned that I look at the polling material. I know that it's 87/100 a Biden win. And for the record I'm an independent that was leaning heavily towards Bernie. I don't have a horse in this race.
I live in the densest county in Florida. I see pro-trump gatherings all the time. I don't see any Biden people. My place in the state of Florida is kind of important. It would be a fair assessment that any place north of where I am goes to trump. If you add that to my area also going to Trump
I'm really confident that he will win Florida. So if you only trust that the polls are accurate than Trump should lose florida 2/3 times. Are you willing to bet
BTC0.02 that Biden wins florida? Because I am willing to bet that it goes to Trump. I certainly can't call the whole election, it's more than likely that Biden wins, but if you're in that camp you can't get complacent. Remember in 2016 Hillary was supposed to win (and even though she won the popular vote), she lost.
I never claimed I'm more qualified than the experts, but if it's raining outside and the weatherman says it's not and I'm wearing clothes made out of newspaper, I'm not stepping out and getting arrested for public nudity.