Quote from: aesma on November 19, 2020, 11:54:44 PM

Quote from: Lucasgabd on November 19, 2020, 01:21:51 PM

Quote from: aesma on November 18, 2020, 11:56:50 PM

Quote from: Lucasgabd on November 18, 2020, 01:09:24 PM

FTX just opened a new contract that expires on February 1st.
TRUMPGO and TRUMPSTAY for those who think he still has a chance.

information about it here:
https://ftx.com/trump-tokens

Being forced to buy both tokens then get rid of one to actually bet on the right outcome is smart for them, not so much for us. I'm guessing the price of TRUMPWIN will be almost nothing.

you're not forced to buy both tokens.
not sure if you got the mechanic right but check that:

Quote

TRUMPSTAY will be redeemable for 1 USD if Trump is president on Feburary 1, 2020 and 0 otherwise. Similarly, TRUMPGO will be redeemable for 1 USD if Trump is not president on February 1, 2020 and 0 otherwise*.

TRUMPWIN and TRUMPLOSE are already closed contracts, both considered that Joe Biden won and were redeemed accordingly.

If you still want to bet on the possibility of TRUMP staying or leaving office until february 1st you can use the tokens TRUMPSTAY and TRUMPGO.

The page linked allow you to create these tokens BUT you don't need to create them, you can just go directly to the contract page and trade it:
https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPGO/USD
https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPSTAY/USD

I mean the initial way to get the tokens. 0.840 for TRUMPGO, interesting, that's better odds than DarkStar_ is offering, what's the catch ?

I never said my offer was good - in fact it's a pretty poor offer compared to exchanges. PredictIt currently has Biden at 0.840 as well so I think it's a reasonable offer (though still much better than Betfair, which has 1.05 for Biden right now). I'm surprised prediction markets are differing this much, but I guess it's hard to arbitrage between Betfair and PredictIt since PredictIt is USA only while Betfair excludes USA.