Quote from: dragonvslinux on November 26, 2020, 08:58:24 AM

Price is moving faster than expected, therefore now eyeing up the $15.5-16K levels (-18-20%) as support, now price is capitulating. This is the current localish VPVR point of control, 200 MA on the 4hr, as well as ~~0.619~~ 0.618 fib retracement from the $10K break-out to $19.5K high.

Not too much to analysis yet, price appears to trading within a distinct volume gap between $16.5-17.5K. Resistance sits between $17.5-18K now, while trading below the 100 MA isn't doing us any favors either. A break of this range will likely determine the future direction, of which I think will be down to strong $15.5K support. We unsurprisingly got a bounce from oversold territory on the 4hr RSI, which is what you'd expect when price remains oversold on the Weekly time-frame.

Then when we zoom out to the Daily, we see we are actually a long way from strong support. While $12K (-38%) would clearly be well defended it price ever got there, I'm generally looking at a retracement to somewhere between $13-14K (-28-33%), even if anything below $16K (-18%) is worth accumulating imo. If the 21 Day MA doesn't hold, next up would be the 0.5 fib retracement and 50 Day MA around $15K (-23%), which would stand a chance of supporting the price.

Like the Daily, the Weekly remains incredibly bullish, the only issue is being so far from strong support. The Weekly candle is looking indecisive, but after so much upside in recent weeks, looks to be defining a reversal if price closes at current prices or lower. We'd need to get back above $18.5K by the end of the week to turn this around.

I've otherwise been dumping bags into Ethereum and will continue to do so, as it has already had a 35% correction and remains at a 25% discount.
Bitcoin has fallen 17% and remains at a 12% discount, not Black Friday material yet.

Quote from: exstasie on November 26, 2020, 10:29:38 AM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on November 26, 2020, 08:58:24 AM

Price is moving faster than expected, therefore now eyeing up the $15.5-16K levels (-18-20%) as support, now price is capitulating. This is the current localish VPVR point of control, 200 MA on the 4hr, as well as 0.619 fib retracement from the $10K break-out to $19.5K high.

It's time to start buying the dip again, but without trying to catch the falling knife at $18K or $17K...

Shucks, only 18-20%?! And here I thought we might be having a real Bitcoin correction!

The dump looks possibly impulsive to me. I think we can push deeper than that, possibly getting the 30-40% dip I've been concerned about. As long as price is failing to recover and hold above the $18K area, I'm inclined to think distribution will continue. If bulls can however hold above that horizontal resistance and the 0.618 level, I would reassess.

I'm coming round to the idea of this more so indeed. The end of week will likely confirm this to me. Bye bye new all time high in 2020 most likely.