Quote from: Joementum on November 26, 2020, 06:10:44 PM

Quote from: Timelord2067 on November 26, 2020, 04:53:06 PM

Quote from: Joementum on November 26, 2020, 12:59:33 PM

I'm curious how much I will win with my presidential election bet. Can someone help me figure out the estimated winnings?

When I placed my bet it showed the following:

TIME WEIGHT MULTIPLIER 30.0x
Outcome odds 4.5
Betting amount 0.01

Thank you!

The time weight multiplier is a little bit misleading your 30.0 X means that you will receive 1.3 times what you wagered (BTC 0.01 X 1.3 = BTC 0.013) with the outcome of 4.5 giving an end result of BTC 0.0585.

Having said that however, the outcome odds will fluctuate until betting is closed - if you're quoting the after closing odds (and you bet on Joe Biden) then you should pick up BTC 0.0585 in the near future.

Congratulations.

I was quoting the odds when I placed the bet. I'm not familiar with time weighted bets, more with bookies offering fixed odds.

The closing odds were 1.99 for Joe Biden. So my winnings are roughly 0.01*1.3*1.99= 0.02587. I expected something like 0.023 still not bad. Thanks.

In parimutual betting you are not betting against the house, you are betting against other people but obviously when you wager early with a lot higher amount odds (for example who will be the next president had like 10+ candidates and later only 2 so odds changed a lot) I assume it would have been a bit difficult to calculate without time weight. Think about it, you gamble so early that your bet looks like x35.00 odds but later on when it gets closer it is 1.8, how are you going to claculate that without the weight? Which means the earlier you wager (or maybe later, if the odd grows bigger later on) you are going to have better result but not a HUGE margin, where it ends up before the bet closed is the most important odd, after that you get that multiplier depending on when you gambled.