Quote from: dragonvslinux on Today at 09:09:54 AM

Yes, stick to the routine that works. Throw all your money into these deep dips. Don't question it, don't think about it, just BTFD. We all know it works, carry on...

This is problematic phrasing dragon.

Of course, buying the dip is a decent strategy that can supplement DCA..,. both strategies work, and personally, I suggest various kinds of practices that might dedicate various monies to various practices, but at the same time, one of the ONLY ways to actually keep buying the dip or keep DCA'ing is to attempt to always have some dry powder.. and even I have been guilty of running out of dry powder.. which then should largely cause a conversion to a HODL strategy.. even though personally, I have tended to shave off a bit of extra dollars on BTC price rises (even during very large dips) in order to attempt to have some cash available in case the BTC price dips even more beyond the very large dips that had already taken place. So, for example, when the BTC price dropped down to $3,850 in March, I had gotten down to something approaching less than 1% value that was still in dollars that I could use to buy BTC if BTC prices were to drop even further.. so I recall that I bought down to about $4k-ish, and then when the BTC price rose back up to $5k and beyond, I ended up shaving off a few percentages more than what I usually would shave off on that rise in order that I would have more cash to buy MOAR BTC in the event that we were to again drop below $3,850 - which from subsequent happenings, we can appreciate did not end up happening.

My insurance policy to sell a wee bit more, ended up ONLY serving as an insurance policy rather than becoming profitable.. and part of the reason that I can "get away with" shaving off more BTC at low prices and NOT really being greatly negatively affected is because I had already accumulated quite a bit more than my rational authorized allocation in 2015 and 2016 - and therefore, my BTC portfolio was considerably in profits when I ended up shaving off a we bit more of my BTC stash, even though the price was in a considerably large dip that ended up being a buying opportunity rather than a selling opportunity (and even though I was doing the opposite because mostly my system had already been established since when the BTC price was around $250 in late 2015 to authorize myself to be able to sell BTC all the way up.. and to also consider that my sales of BTC all the way up and since late 2015 had always been conservative amounts of sales - which also caused considerable cushions to sell extra BTC in the $5k-ish and $6k-ish area in March/April 2020... which I feel did not hurt my overall BTC portfolio in any kind of meaningful way, beyond providing me with some BTC buying insurance (just in case). In this post from late March, I describe some of my contemplations of the matter (and I may have had another more specific post, but I could not find it in my quickie search).

Quote from: dragonvslinux on Today at 09:09:54 AM

I also realise things could be very different, the 25-35% retracement may not happen from here, $25K or even $30K. For me, more of the issue is the lack of consolidation of higher prices, the current macro price swings <$20K have all been very wild compared to the textbook consolidation periods of 2016.

Your perception of our current situation and the locations of our very recent consolidations seems quite strange characterizations, dragon.

Yeah.. we ONLY had challenges of the previous ATH within the past few days.. and sure we had a wee bit of a BTC price correction before challenging the previous ATH.. but still there has not been much passage of time, and the consolidation seems to be largely in the territory of the ATH (slightly below) rather than anything significant or meaningful to write home to mom about.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on Today at 09:09:54 AM

If consolidating $14K price last summer for over a year counts as long enough consolidation for this level, then so be it, I'm more "concerned" we may have 3-6 months of price consolidation to come, even if not the deep dip.

I doubt that you can count the BTC price rise to $13,880 in early to mid 2019 as a consolidation, and also, you seem to keep it in your head that a correction and retest of support is actually necessary - which historically, we have seen several periods in BTC's price history in which retest did not happen in spite of numerous chartalists proclaiming such purported inevitabilities, blah blah blah..

NONSENSE. consider what kind of asset that BTC is.. .. so fuck the chartalists and their insistence upon corrections that are purportedly "necessary"

Don't get me wrong.. I am not ruling out that corrections might NOT happen.. I am largely quibbling with overly assigning value to expectations that corrections of certain sizes and various revisitations of certain prices have higher value than they actually have in the real world of bitcoinlandia.. rather than attempting to pigeonhole king daddy into some category that is out of touch with what king daddy is, which is a new and paradigm shifting asset class - never been seen before by the likes of man. Shocked

Quote from: dragonvslinux on Today at 09:09:54 AM

Like in summer, many of us (including myself) felt we would correct further from a 150% gain, but we didn't, we just consolidated this price for a couple of months.

Case in point. You are making my argument... Kiss

#nohomo.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on Today at 09:09:54 AM

This is why I'm convinced that this $10K level will be held, without a shadow of a doubt.

Even assigning much value to corrections into that neighborhood seem to be quite wishful thinking, even though I would not say that they are impossible.. and maybe I would even assign 20%-ish possibilities to revisiting $14k-ish.. and sure if we break below $14k-ish then we have $12.5k and $10k as possible revisitation areas... but still seems decently low to even get below $14k... at least currently.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on Today at 09:09:54 AM

Re-testing the $14K level however seems very logical,

It may be logical, but I am not sure that it is greater than 50% as you seem to be implying. I will concede that maybe revisiting $15k would be greater than 50% though... but your assignment of probability to revisiting $14k seems to be much greater than 50%, otherwise why would you use the "very logical" descriptor... which causes me to speculate that you may have a wee bit too much hopium in your analysis rather than really dealing with BTC's current price dynamics posture.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on Today at 09:09:54 AM

to re-test the year long resistance level that we recently broke through.

I agree that $13,880 is a meaningful price point.. including having had served as resistance on a few occasions, and also having had served as BTC's highest monthly close prior to November 2020.. but still fuck numerology.. bitcoin is not tied to those kinds of "have to happen" blah blah blah scenarios.. we have seen it numerous times.

Sure, I am not really personally disadvantaged in any kind of meaningful or material way if we revisit #13,880-ish .. but certainly, I find it quite problematic to assign very high expectations to those kinds of possible prices - except maybe for any newbies or new coiners to structure their DCA, and buy on dips in such a way that they would have some dry powder if such dips were to happen.. and, I always attempt to recommend having some dry powder even for very extreme scenarios.. and sure, I might consider 4 digits to still be around a 5% possibility.. but visiting the 208 week moving average (at any point in the coming months) that is now close to $7,200 would probably be in the less than 2% region.. and I suppose a quickie liquidation event (blackswan short-lived) dip would have a bit higher odds.

Quote from: dragonvslinux on Today at 09:09:54 AM

I'd feel a lot better about the price if we re-tested sooner rather than later. Each to their own, I also like discounts.

What's wrong with going to $30k first, and then coming to revisit support at that time (and likely support would have moved up by then)... I just doubt that any kind of retest of support is even necessary before BTC prices could go shooting up 30% to 50%... and who knows whether those kinds of price appreciations are going to happen, but they are looking close to the same level of probability as a dip to sub $14k.

In other words, it is good to meaningfully and realistically attempt to weigh probabilities in both directions rather than largely focusing upon one direction and overly assigning probabilities to that one direction while failing and refusing to adequately and appropriately assign probabilities to the other direction...

Again, I could hardly give any shits which way the BTC price direction goes, but it still seems to be slightly favoring UPpity at the moment rather than DOWNity - and of course, your mileage may vary (YMMV) regarding how to assign these probabilities and to meaningfully and realistically attempt to pee pare ur lil selfie for either direction (including the probability of sideways, which seems way less probable at this point... BTC, aka king daddy, aka lillie fiend, does not tend to do sideways very well, especially during price discovery war times).