Quote from: Tmdz on Today at 04:03:08 PM

Quote from: Poker Player on Today at 10:18:39 AM

Quote from: thecodebear on Today at 07:24:06 AM

Actually today I read an article by someone named Dan Held ...
-snip
https://dailyhodl.com/2020/07/08/bitcoin-super-cycle-could-bring-btc-to-1000000-in-four-to-five-years-heres-how-according-to-dan-held/

I just read his twitter where he talks about it and I quoted him in the WO thread, but anyway, we should not forget that it is normal to see these theories in a bull market.

In a bear market these theories are either not said or go unnoticed. Having said that, I hope he is right.

If I have understood you well, you are saying that these parabolic moves up won't happen because institutional investors will help stabilize the market. So you are not so bullish as him

Parabolic runs still happen but the "crash" is limited on the downside as other people buy the dip and the run keeps going.

Look at the nasdaq, it has been in a bullrun for 10 years. So btc could start looking more like a bull run in traditional markets and less like a dot com bubble such as in 2017.

Yeah, essentially that.

The insane boom/bust cycle that has dominated bitcoin's market cycles in its first decade is driven by the emotional investing of the retail market FOMOing into something they just heard about and then panic selling when they see that thing they just heard about (and know nothing about) dropping in value.

Corporations and investment firms who do research and don't make an investment lightly, along with seasoned accredited investors, will not be creating such a volatile character in the market. And they will be owning the majority of the available coins in the next few years simply because they are the ones with all the money. The retail market will shrink as a percentage of the market from like 90% to something far lower, as will their ability to cause crazy parabolic runs and crushing crashes. We will still get fits of FOMO and panic causing big pumps and sharp corrections or mid-term downturns, but it is going to take years for institutional money to slowly work its way into what is still a very small asset - they could buy the entire bitcoin market cap dozens or hundreds of times over right now - so there will always be more institutional money wanting to get their hands on Bitcoin, and this will stop any crash caused by the increasingly less significant retail market. Corrections won't turn into long term bear markets anytime in the next few years.

Essentially, the "base" of the market will move up much quicker because of all the long term institutional money that is being invested for many years to come instead of to make a quick buck. In 2017, despite rising from $1000 to $20,000, the base of the market even by end of 2018 was only $3000, so that is where it bottomed. If the base this fall was $10k, it is quickly rising now. As an example, if we see price go from $10k a couple months ago to $200k at end of next year (like 2017), the base is going to be a lot higher than $30k, and continuing to rise in a correction as institutions buy up cheaper coins during the correction for long term holding, rather than panic selling what they already have. It would maybe result in a downturn for a few months and 6-9 months later it's back pushing new ATHs. And this will continue from probably half a decade until institutions have gotten a decent piece of the market, pushing the price probably over half a million dollars, not as a brief peak to hit before a crash, but as a well supported price.