Quote from: exstasie on December 29, 2020, 07:39:47 AM

Quote from: FEELEPIC on December 27, 2020, 02:20:41 PM

I think this will be the top. Whats your speculation?

Good target. I'm loosely thinking $300-400K myself (will hopefully be able to add some more precision to that during the blow-off phase), based on a few extrapolations of past bubbles.

Very unpredictable though. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results and all that.

I'm also concerned that a future cycle (possibly this one) will blow all the past cycles, even 2011, out of the water. That's the S-curve scenario, the idea being that we are entering the vertical stage of the adoption curve.

This is one reason why I definitely won't be selling everything even if we get to the $300,000s. For all I know, this thing could run into 7 figures and then bottom out at $500K. You never know.

I could see it going to such high numbers, like half a million or a million. But if it does I think it'll be part of a multi-year bull run. I don't see $300k, $500k, etc happening in roughly a year. Institutions aren't going to buy it up that high that quickly, and there would definitely be a retail blow-off top before it gets that high. But I could totally see above $500k before 2025 in a series of bull runs that basically form into one long multi-year bull run, where institutions keep gradually piling in and there are retail bubbles here and there as it goes along.

At $20k, $30k etc, institutions are making wise and calculated decisions to get into Bitcoin. They I am sure would be willing to wait for lower prices if the price shot up from say $50k this Spring to like $150k or $200k or so by end of year. There is no way they'd keep fueling it to $300k or higher. They'd step back, some that are more into playing the market would take profits, retail investors would take profits, there'd be a panicked drop, and once institutions felt safe investing again they'd start piling back in. I could see this happening several times over the next few years though without any sustained bear market in between the drive the price up to that $500k range in the course of a few successive bubbles rather than just a single year long bubble.

But if you're right and a year or so from now we're looking at 10x from here I ain't gonna be complaining ;p you already convinced me in one of these threads to sell gradually over time and not sell everything when it passes $100k.