Quote from: coinbiz on Today at 06:56:34 AM

What's strange about this bull run is when a pull back happens, the alts are not rising. They're also dropping in unison.

In the past runs (I've been around), whenever bitcoin dropped, alts would rise, money stayed in the market. It seems when bitcoin drops now, money is exiting the market to fiat.

The problem with institutional investment, ie GrayScale or MicroStrategy is that when the price dips below their average buy price, they may be forced to sell by their investors. Institutional buying is great, but institutional selling at these levels could set off a bear market.

The recent spike to $34k and subsequent drop don't look healthy in terms of technicals. I know technicals don't mean much with bitcoin, but I compare with bitcoin's own chart patterns historically. This current drop coincides closely with money flowing to exchanges due to anticipation of upcoming regulations in the next few weeks.

I predict we're due for another dip below $30k in the next few days, then the final rally of this bull run getting close to $40k (I'll know when this happens because it will coincide with Ethereum also setting an all-time high), followed by a major pull back, which will dip below $20k (within about a month or so).

Most of those institutional investors are buying long term. They're not making a quick trade play. Grayscale buys and holds, they literally don't sell anything. Microstrategy put all their cash reserves into Bitcoin, which is purely a long term play. They also raised a lot of debt to buy more, but at the prices they bought in they are in no danger of being in a losing position even if we do get a solid correction in the near future. There is no being forced to sell by investors for those kinds of institutional buys. This is much more a worry for the retail market, not the institutional market, which generally is buying to hold long term, and is not going to sell just because they might not be in profit 100% of the time soon after buying. If that were the case they'd be too scared to ever invest in anything.

Altcoins have actually surged when Bitcoin goes sideways, this just happened a day ago before there was that quick drop. But you have to realize that they are perhaps surging less than you expect because its the institutions that are driving BTC up. These institutions are only in BTC (and a little bit in ETH), they are not selling Bitcoin to ride some altcoin wave. The retail market will do this, but because institutions are the one driving the market cap up now, there's gonna be a lot less altcoin surges during the times Bitcoin stops surging. Altcoins are becoming more risk and less reward than they used to be as Bitcoin takes a more dominant position as it now is exiting the "crypto-only" market and is entering its phase as a globally accepted asset.