Quote from: JimboToronto on January 07, 2021, 09:25:58 PM

Quote from: coinbiz on January 07, 2021, 08:46:32 PM

Most people who think it "won't ever touch $15k again" haven't been around since the early days. Every bull run so far has been followed by a bear market decline of a minimum of 80%

Don't be over-confident. What goes up must come down. The positive though is that the bear market declines are getting less severe over time, and the price is stabilizing as it goes higher.

The last bear market was a crash of nearly 85%. Many alt coins crashed 99% lol.

Reality check - the US economy is at an all-time high and stocks are increasing despite record unemployment and many other indicators of poor recovery outlook.

Bitcoin is rising due to Tether (China capital outflow) and stimulus pumping companies. As 'wallstreet' becomes more intertwined with bitcoin, the price correlates more closely with US economic indicators.

What happens if the US economy tanks?

My prediction is that those institutions that bought have agreed upon stop loss points where their investors will not tolerate any further losses. Those kinds of selloffs will easily cause a bear market decline of 70-80%.

I enjoy every couple years a bunch of overly optimistic people come here saying "it's never going as low as $$$" and then a couple years later a bunch of overly pessimistic people say "it's never going as high as $$$... bitcoin is done" lol. It's a cycle. Just search this forum in 2018 and look at the pessimism. When the prices are low, people lose faith. When the prices are high people lose sight/IQ.

Ride the waves, but just know it goes in both directions. Don't get caught up in the hype train or the doom gloom. Ultimately we will go to $1mil, maybe not in my lifetime, but who knows.

Well look at that... a noob telling experienced Bitcoiners what is what, or is this just your newest account. If so, what was your old user name?
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Nobody is saying Bitcoin can't crash by 80% of its value but the chance of it happening this early in the bull run is extremely unlikely.

You also have to consider that previous bubbles were driven by retail FOMO and crashed by retail weak hands. Institutional investors don't have weak hands.

The current bull run has been largely the result of institutional investment. Retail FOMO is just starting to join the party. When the time for a major correction occurs it will probably be much smaller than during retail-based runs.
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Anything can happen. Black swan events occur... e.g. last March's short-lived Covid-19 crash.

Actual experience is the best teacher. How many of these cycles have you ridden out?

Noob because I deleted many of my old posts. I registered in Jan 2014. Had hundreds of posts before, decided to delete them for certain reasons. Bought bitcoin in 2012-2013. Not worried about any price drops, just find it funny how sentiment changes so quickly during the bull / bear markets. It's literally day and night. All skepticism seems to escape during a bull run and all faith is gone during a bear market. I've ridden out plenty of waves.

I suppose I'm a bit against the idea of institutional investment in general. I want them out. That's some bias I have. Bitcoin was intended to destroy the existing financial institutions and replace them. I'm a bit bummed that all the craze these days is all about which big bank is hopping on the crypto wave.