Quote from: johhnyUA on January 08, 2021, 10:30:27 PM

Maybe i would add some more DOGE, but i don't holding them and don't have opportunity to buy them fast on exchanger. So that's what i have (thanks again to webtricks for his 500 DOGE). But i have some question: Why so big odds?
Maybe this is USA system, but i often see (in my local book sites) odds like 1.23, 2.05 which means 1.23 X sum if you win. And what we have here? 12.4x Huh

This is some kind of giveaway or what? Huh

Okay, let me explain how odds work:

The examples you gave are from two-way or three-way markets. Let me quote a real live market for tonight matches to better explain the things:

Granada v Barcelona - Odds - 7.00 1.40 5.20
Levante v Eibar - Odds - 2.30 3.10 3.40

In which match do you think house is paying better odds? No. 1? Nope, it's match 2 between Levante and Eibar.

To determine the house edge in odds, we first need to add total odds by dividing each with 1 first. In first match, it will be = 1/7 + 1/1.4 + 1/5.2 = 1.0495.
Now divide 1 with the result, it will be = 1/1.0495 = 0.9528.
Finally deduct the result from 1 and multiply by 100, it will be = 1-0.9528 = 0.0472 or 4.72%

In second match, it's 4.89%. So, if bets are equally spread among the teams according to winning probability then house will make the profit of 4.72% and 4.89% in above matches resp..

Now, let's consider our market. We have 9 players. Easy example first. Suppose, each player is equal contender of winning and equally-likely favorite of bettors. So, we will give equal probability and odds to each of them, hence, each player has 1/9 chance of winning. If our house edge is zero, we will give 9.00x odds for each player. But let's consider the house edge of 5% which means I set odds to 8.55x for each player.

Suppose, each player received equal bets of $100 then our total income is $900. One of the player will win and we have to pay $100 * 8.55 = $855 to winners, leaving us with $45 as profit.

These are the current odds from my website:
Betwrong 9.65x, icopress 9.28x, TrayvonKang 8.04x, noobHere 10.96x, TikTokLyFe 12.06x, webtricks 9.28x, Iv4n 6.18x, Teethow 3.77x, 1r0n1c 15.08x,

Looking high? Let's find out. Using the formula explained in first part,
1/9.65 + 1/9.28 + 1/8.04 + 1/10.96 + 1/12.06 + 1/9.28 + 1/6.18 + 1/3.77 + 1/15.08 = 1.1110

Dividing with 1, = 0.90004. Deducting from 1, we are left with 0.10006 or 10% house edge.

So, don't worry guys, there is nothing wrong with odds. Cheesy

And I would be more than happy to payout the winnings if Teethow or anyone else wins.

However, I failed to anticipate one thing while writing the algorithm. There is a factor known as 'indifferentiation'. Usually bettors differentiate among the choices. For example, in the first match above, odds for Barcelona are 1.40 which is significantly lower than the odds on Granada or Draw. But still maximum bets will be made on this odd because bettors expect Barcelona win more than other two choices.

However, sometimes bettors are indifferentiate towards the choices, like in our game. We can't say with greater predictability that who has higher chances of winning. In such markets, bettors are more concerned with odds than probability. Hence, maximum bets will come on players with higher odds rather than the player with higher probability of winning. For example, when Betwong's odds were 4.5x and webtricks's odds were 11.5x, the bettor preferred the latter. However, the same bettor preferred Betwrong over webtricks when odds were reversed.

To deal with such situation, I should have increased the house edge to atleast 1/6th or 16.67% and reduce the weightage of winning chance to 1/5th in total calculation. But no worries, I have some big stack of DOGE lying in my wallet from last failed project so it won't hurt much. Grin