Quote from: mikeywith on January 11, 2021, 05:46:49 PM

Quote from: stompix on January 11, 2021, 10:51:34 AM

so how is the script approximating the outcomeas it makes little sense to see it go down to let's say 3% if we're already that far away in front!

Well I would argue it's the opposite, simply because the earlier we are in the epoch the sensitive the change is, 10% has more likely to fall than to go up, this is where the expected lower value of 2.5% comes from, but anyway, we are still very, very early, let's wait for a couple of days before judging this epoch, we know this month will be the first month of s19 series and some M30/31 gears, but it's still the 11th, not sure if some batches are delivered and going online, I'll check with some of the folks who are expecting gears this month to see where things stand.

I expected three 10% jumps in a row. But quite a few people made a case for that not happening. We are up 7%. we were up 11%. I say that drop could be clockers lowering some old school gear due to the price drop. Which means if coins go back to 42k we will go close to 10-11%. time will tell. It also means s19pros and m30's are getting delivered.

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https://diff.cryptothis.com

Latest Block:   665650 (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   107.6461% (371 / 344.65 expected, 26.35 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   18599593048299.49
Current Difficulty:   20607418304385.63
Next Difficulty:   between 21121018654819 and 22224571906883
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.4923% and +7.8474%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 10:18 AM (+10.7950%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 22, 2021 at 10:26 AM (in 10d 14h 41m 33s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 23, 2021 at 2:19 AM (in 11d 6h 34m 58s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 0h 8m 1s and 13d 16h 1m 27s
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FUN FACT: Due to a longstanding bug in the Bitcoin source code, the time spent mining the first block in each difficulty epoch actually has no effect on the next difficulty calculation. Even if this block somehow took an entire year to mine, it would not cause the next difficulty to drop, believe it or not! The calculations on this site take this bug into account to help produce the most accurate difficulty estimate possible. For more information on this bug, please refer to this section of Andreas Antonopoulos's book, Mastering Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Difficulty Epoch #330
= mined & expected = mined & unexpected = unmined & expected = unmined & unexpected = being mined
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