How do you reconcile that with the drop to 1/4 of the price in the first four months of 2018? Was there a similar existential threat to BTC then too?
No. See the bolded phrase for emphasis.
That crash took place after magnitudes larger gains than those realized in this bull run. BTC broke the 2013 highs in January 2017. The bubble lasted a year. By December 2017, BTC had extended 16x above those 2013 highs.
In this case, the 2017 highs were only broken 1 month ago, and BTC has extended a mere
2x above the 2017 high. That's 1 year vs. 1 month and 16x vs. 2x. You're really expecting an 80%+ bear market crash already?
For this bubble to pop so much quicker than previous bubbles, and for the subsequent crash to also be so much harder than previous crashes.....that would indicate to me that
something is different this time.I would assume the only thing logical about the crash would be the amount required and not the percentage. For example in order for price to go over 1.5k to 20k it required less money versus the money required to make it from 20k to 40k, because each time you buy at 5k to make it 10k, you bought it at 5k, but right now you bought it at 30k to increase it, so people are spending more and more money to buy bitcoin to increase it.
I am not saying crash would come quicker, I am not saying we will not be going any higher, I think we are still in a bull market and we are still going to go up a lot more, I just wanted to explain what the crash expectations are all about. Since the money required is a lot more these days, same people expect bitcoin to be a lot lower right now due to how much money was required, that is why I believe they think it may go down.