Quote from: netrin on October 07, 2011, 09:59:58 PM

I believe you are correct regarding politicians' weaknesses. However, what does make this time different (than say Weimar, Zimbabwe, Argentina, and thousands of others through history) is that USD supply is not actually paper. Debt can evaporate, but paper can not. Despite tripling M0 over the past three years, paper is still scarce while M3 contracts rapidly. But you could be right. If the flow of money stops, banks stop lending, unemployment doubles, M0=M3, yes, I am afraid the printing press will crank out paper.

I agree with that - in theory. But in reality, all currencies are a confidence game. Loss of confidence implies a desire to move out of money, and that starts the velocity. 90% of dollars are outside of the US. There will be no end to the money creation because banks are insolvent (not only illiquid). We have seen some of the first signs this year and last as we see that the dollar hasn't rallied even with European debt problems. If this truly is the big one, why is the dollar at sub-80 and falling from resistance?

This is BTC's opportunity. People are moving away from dollars and looking for something else - look at the Swissie, commodities, etc. At some stage, there will be a run for the exits. IMO, the deflationist viewpoint doesn't really take into account human nature. CBs will print - they have no choice. Govts will spend - they have no choice.