1 in xxx chance for lotto is EVERY GAME played, not every week.
1 in xxx chance for BTC is EVERY BLOCK mined, not every day.
Nothing of what I said contradicts this, you are just using a different form of representation of probabltity, 1 in x chance every block is equal to 1/144 chance a day.
Mathematically, the probability is the same no matter which way you approach it.
No, it's not the same, this can't be further from the truth, also there is no mathematics in probabilities.
So a Lotto win is NEVER guaranteed regardless of it's probability, whereas a block to be hit is an ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY every 10minutes or thereabouts. It is just a matter of whether YOU hit the block. Lotto has no inbuilt certainty - EVER.
This is also wrong, first of all, it's not
guaranteed that a block is to be found every 10 mins it could take days, it can even take years, there is no law in the universe that forces a bitcoin block to be found in x amount of time, but then even if we were to agree to the 10 mins theory, it really doesn't matter, just because a block is guaranteed to be found it does not make your chances any better, also just because there is a possibility that nobody wins the lotto it doesn't make your chances any worse, the probability of any other event happening aside from you being lucky enough has absolutely ZERO impact on your own luck.
Think about out this way, imagine nobody else but you is trying to solve the next Bitcoin block, does that increase/decrease your chances? the simple answer is 'No', and the same thing goes for the lotto, whether you are playing it alone or with a trillion other people/tickets your chances are ALWAYS the same.
It's a general misconspection that many people think they are competing against other miners or other lotto players, no you are not, you are competing against your own luck and that's all about it, the lotto has an exception of the reward being divided between possible potential winners and that's a whole different scope.