Quote from: mikeywith on February 01, 2021, 03:53:19 AM

Quote from: chrysophylax on February 01, 2021, 02:54:36 AM

1 in xxx chance for lotto is EVERY GAME played, not every week.

1 in xxx chance for BTC is EVERY BLOCK mined, not every day.

Nothing of what I said contradicts this, you are just using a different form of representation of probabltity, 1 in x chance every block is equal to 1/144 chance a day.

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Mathematically, the probability is the same no matter which way you approach it.

No, it's not the same, this can't be further from the truth.

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So a Lotto win is NEVER guaranteed regardless of it's probability, whereas a block to be hit is an ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY every 10minutes or thereabouts. It is just a matter of whether YOU hit the block. Lotto has no inbuilt certainty - EVER.

This is also wrong, first of all, it's not guaranteed that a block is to be found every 10 mins it could take days, it can even take years, there is no law in the universe that forces a bitcoin block to be found in x amount of time, but then even if we were to agree to the 10 mins theory, it really doesn't matter, just because a block is guaranteed to be found it does not make your chances any better, also just because there is a possibility that nobody wins the lotto it doesn't make your chances any worse, the probability of any other event happening aside from you being lucky enough has absolutely ZERO impact on your own luck.

Think about it this way, imagine that nobody else but you is trying to solve the next Bitcoin block, does that increase/decrease your chances? the simple answer is 'No', and the same thing goes for the lotto, whether you are playing it alone or with a trillion other people/tickets your chances are ALWAYS the same.

It's a general misconception that many people think they are competing against other miners or other lotto players, no you are not, you are competing against your own luck and that's all about it, the lotto has an exception of the reward being divided between possible potential winners and that's a whole different scope.

And this is why ...

This is why the system is misunderstood - because you think I am wrong on statistical probabilities that are fact, as well as ratios and mathematical facts that you think are incorrect.

All good though, the more you believe you are right, the more those like me seem to be benefittting from the manipulation of these statistical facts. Probability has feeling, so what you believe or feel is right or wrong is irrelevant. It's maths. The probability is based on EVERY block, on EVERY game, on EVERY hash. Whether we like it or not.

It makes no difference anyway guys, as the probabilities are not what we are all dealing with here. A block WILL be hit when the hashrate is there, that is coded into the system, whether 10minutes or so is also (almost) irrelevant, it WILL be hit - it actually HAS to be unless the chain is stopped with no hash driving it.

I don't need to argue these facts with you, look at the probabilities of Lotto for every games played, and the same goes for every block,

All good though. The misconception there is in the world, the better for those that can deal with the way it works.

#crysx