Quote from: AlcoHoDL on February 19, 2021, 01:12:16 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 17, 2021, 07:49:57 PM

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on February 17, 2021, 07:49:28 AM

$50k was a major psychological boundary. As was $10k before it. And maybe $20k.

The next one (in my head at least) is $100k.

$60k, $70k, ... etc., should be easy to pwn.

For the electronics engineers among us, look at the H/V scale of an oscilloscope: x10, x20, x50 x100, etc. Wink

Things are looking up. Literally!

...and flowers are green.

I am thinking that if I agree with you, AlcoHoDL, which I seem to, and that means, I better get my shit together and start setting my BTC sell orders above $100k.

As I said earlier, I had most of my BTC sell orders up to about $35k that had been set since about late 2017, and sure I tweaked some of those BTC sell orders between late 2017 and about October of 2020, but those BTC sell were not really put into question until about early November 2020 when $13,880 was broken.. and we kind of went on a tear since then.. and even if there were some signs of an impending tear in September/October.

So, yeah sometime in November 2020, I had to make sure that I had BTC sell orders up to the $50ks, but then it did not take too long before those up to $50k sell orders did not seem to be sufficient - so in about late December we had broken pretty decisively through deadman's zone (which was the $17,250-ish to $23,500-ish) price range, and there seemed like no real desire of king daddy to either stagnate or to have any meaningful corrections until about early or mid-January, but already by late December, it seemed justifiable to me to make sure that I was covered with my buy orders up to $100k - and now, I am thinking that I should cover at least through $150k, but probably it would be more prudent to get my BTC sell orders set up to $200k.. because none of us can really appreciate how fast things might move, but setting the sell orders up to $200k would likely allow me a wee bit more breathing space in terms of at what point the next setting of BTC sell orders might get triggered because as you seem to suggest, AlcoHoDL, a quick doubling becomes decently easy to achieve in bitcoinlandia once certain thresholds are passed.. and I cannot really argue with that way of framing our current BTC price dynamics.

I hope I'm not steering you towards a sub-optimal strategy, Jay. Psychological thresholds do exist, and breaking them is harder than any other random price value. It doesn't really make any sense from a purely scientific/mathematical point of view. It's the same when you ask someone about the chances of rolling a dice 6 times and getting "3, 1, 4, 3, 6, 2" vs. "6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6". Most people would give the first sequence a much higher probability than the second sequence, when, in reality, they both have exactly the same probability of occurring.

I continue to consider these kinds of matters, and sometimes I will make relatively small tweaks here and there along the way, and in the whole scheme of things, I believe that my system already accounts for various psychological barriers (thresholds), and even though I understand that you are suggesting a bit of playing the odds a bit more and removing some sell orders and perhaps making those sell order (or combining them at strategic locations), but fuck that. I have way more money than I can even know what to do with in terms of my personal fulfillments - and I have some ideas that I will likely present in another thread in the coming months.. but I give little to no shits about the few coins that I sold between $10k and $50k.. does not matter to me. My formula allowed up to a certain level of BTC sales because the magnitude of becoming more richie was already baked into the BTC price going up, and then thereafter, I even tweaked the quantity of my sales down and the quantity of my rebuys up, and I still end up having a formula that has more BTC than originally anticipated based on earlier versions of the formula. I give no fucks to sell a few coins here and there along the way, and even if the BTC price ends up going to a million or something like that, I am still likely to have way more coins than the overwhelming majority of people, even considering that some megamillionairres such as Elon decides to buy 30k BTC or 70k BTC... whatever.. those are exceptions, and there are all kinds of millionnaires and billionnaires who are failing and refusing to take any kind of stake in this ever obvious greatest wealth transfer in our lifetime, and I have more than enough BTC... to have plenty of options and I don't need to have a difference in being ranked top million of bitcoiner HODLers versus ending up being top 15 million of bitcoin HODLers.. I give no shits.

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on February 19, 2021, 01:12:16 PM

So, we should pay attention to those psychological thresholds and boundaries, because they do occur, since there are humans involved in the trades. Regarding {..., x10, x20, x50 x100, ...}, that's always been the standard scale for many different things.

Well, sure if some people are struggling either psychologically or financially in feeling comfortable in terms of analyzing their own situation to figure out if they have enough coins or not, then surely they may feel that they need to hang onto some of their coins to make sure that they have enough coins.

I surely do not have such a problem either psychologically or financially...so I do not need to strategize about whether the price goes up 10% or 50% or 2x, 5x or those BIGGER amounts that you gave. I give no shits. Sure, I like to see bitcoin succeeding, but on a personal financial (psychological) level, no shits given (did I say this enough?..... hahahahahahaha)

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on February 19, 2021, 01:12:16 PM

Will there be any relevance to Bitcoin price action in the coming days/weeks/months? Who knows?

Of course, shorter term is way harder to figure out with any degree of certainty, even though the trend does tend to be your friend, but if we were to end up getting a surprise 2013 like situation where our current BTC price ends up being the top of a first half of a cycle with a fairly significant correction of greater than 60% that lasts more than 5 months, then surely there might be a decent number of folks who start to wrongly conclude that current BTC price was a blow off top blah blah blah.. but anyway, I have no clue how a short term variation in BTC prices might play out that might be an opportunity to scare some weaker hands.. and sure another possibility is that such a long and substantially meaningful correction will NOT happen and instead the weak hands to shake out end up being the bitcoin naysayers, the fence sitters and the shit coin pumpeners.. but whatever.. I give little shits about a variety of these scenarios because my system already accounts for it, and by the way, 208-week moving average is approaching $9,200 and is currently going up about $200 per week.. so all is good with me and especially if the 208-week moving average continues to go up at a decent pace.

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on February 19, 2021, 01:12:16 PM

In my case, I don't put sell orders in future dates, except for tiny amounts of coins (maybe up to 1 BTC) which I keep on exchanges.

Of course, you have to time it and calculate it to your own personal circumstances and sure your circumstances are quite likely different, and surely each of us has to give weight to all of the factors, not just the one about "what is your fucking view about what is going to happen with bitcoin as compared with other assets." That is only one of the factors that needs to be considered.. I can go over the other factors again, but not sure if necessary.. because even with each of the factors, guys (and gal) are going to formulate their approach differently even if they might share commonality in terms of some of the circumstances. So there is not even necessarily an objectively correct answer, even if two people might have a lot of commonality in every single one of the individual factors they might end up formulating (or tailoring) their approach slightly differently.. and end up causing a decent amount of differences in the approaches even though the factors are almost identical between the two.

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on February 19, 2021, 01:12:16 PM

The vast majority of my coins are in cold storage, and cannot take part in automatic trades (not you keys...).

Me too.. but of course, we can already determine that I put more emphasis on following a system that causes me to systemically sell more coins than you probably would end up doing, because you are wanting to be more strategic about your sales at particular points in time (or price movements) so yeah those psychological thresholds.. blah blah blah. I don't care... even if they exist (which I largely concede that there good odds of such)..

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on February 19, 2021, 01:12:16 PM

I'm OK with that. I know that by following some type of plan or strategy for making use of my coins, could end up increasing my stash and/or fiat wealth,

I don't sell to increase my stash, even though I do end up increasing my stash when the price drops, but my intention of selling is not to be able to buy back later, I just am engaging in a kind of ongoing reallocation of tiny portions and providing a kind of downside hedge that I give no shits if it ends up going down, but if it does, then I am buying (like a bot, almost).

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on February 19, 2021, 01:12:16 PM

possibly substantially, but I have chosen the path of HoDLing, which gives me the peace of mind of keeping my coins outside of exchanges,

Of course, you are not the ONLY one that has chosen that strategy, we have a decent number of guys (and gal) in this thread who almost completely HODL.. that is their choice (yours as well, as you know)

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on February 19, 2021, 01:12:16 PM

and not having to worry about setting up buy/sell orders and always being on alert for trading adjustments, etc.

I doubt that I am worried about it. I already developed a practice, and sure of course when the BTC price is moving around a lot there can be some time consuming aspects of resetting up orders or even reconsidering if some changes need to be made.. but I am quite satified with my system.. and continue to be.. even if you might hear me complain a bit about having to have spent 3-4 hours or maybe even longer, sometimes involved in a kind of retweaking of what I do.. maybe even resetting all of my buy orders and changing them from $500 to $1,000 increments and putting them down to $9,500 rather than down to $4,500 blah blah blah.. sure sometimes there are manual things that I do that take several hours in a day to reconsider and to thereafter go through the efforts of putting the changes into play.

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on February 19, 2021, 01:12:16 PM

I'm not a greedy person (at least, I'd like to think so),

I feel the same way about myself.

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on February 19, 2021, 01:12:16 PM

and I'm more than satisfied with what I've got.

Me too.

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on February 19, 2021, 01:12:16 PM

I don't want to mess with something that's already actively freeing me from any financial dependence and allowing me to make most of my (not too grandiose) dreams come true.

My system is achieving a similar goal. So? What's the issue?

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on February 19, 2021, 01:12:16 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 17, 2021, 07:49:57 PM

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on February 17, 2021, 08:02:14 AM

Quote from: 600watt on February 17, 2021, 08:01:11 AM

hard to be productive when btc is on ATH ~~rodeo~~rocket launch.

But you are productive! You own Bitcoin, don't you?

That's a bit of a stretch of a way to describe "productive," even though I cannot really disagree with that concept, either.

There is something that seems unique about bitcoin involvement that makes it seem as if mere speculation might need to be reframed into a kind of productivity, even though there are quite a few bitcoin naysayers and even folks who are against traders that like to suggest that "trading" is a kind of pariah activity.. sure, I am convoluting the concept of speculation and trading, but whatever, I don't claim to be any kind of genius with my various spur of the moment spewing of opinions.

My above comment to 600watt was meant as a semi-joke, with a hint of Warren Buffet wisdom. It's a fact that simply owning BTC for 5+ years has "produced" wealth that is substantially larger than the wealth both my parents combined have managed to produce in their entire working lives. Now, I know that waking up in the morning richer than when you went to bed the previous night may not be considered as being productive in the conventional sense, but I'm happy regardless of how one may call it. It beats any other form of income in my book...

fair enough. Wink