Quote from: Josh on March 10, 2021, 04:50:41 PM

Here's the problem with selling these as I see it. A short essay.

The coin is worth 1 BTC because 1 BTC always = 1 BTC.
The forks are worth $1K roughly, depending on current BTC prices, plus your ability and willingness to extract and deal with them.
The numismatic value is $1K-$5K, maybe more depending on a number of factors.
--The seller reputation, the provenance, rarity, condition, graded or not, ect.
Peeled coins seem to be about $500 to $1000, also based on additional factors.

Shipping and payment has risk.
Personal delivery has risk.
Escrow helps with the payment risk, but adds cost.
The added risk of selling caries a premium, but no one wants to pay it.

Now figure all goes fine, then add that you might get someone's mixed, stolen or laundered BTC, so there's risk there too. Chain analysis exists, and in some places (Europe, for one) is starting to be important. You might receive the BTC you agreed to in the sale but find that you can never cash it out because it is flagged for some reason. Coins that have been mixed have a taint.

There is no way anyone is interested in selling a coin for face value, and anyone offering face or a tiny bit higher is only serving to help keep premiums low.

Now on the flip side say that you just keep the coin. Now you have the custodial risk. That is on you to keep it safe and secure, in the form and condition it is in.

There's 1 and only 1 private key and it's printed in tiny letters on a paper behind a fragile hologram stuck to a piece of brass. You can put the coin in a clear coin case, put that into a small watertight holder, and maybe a metal enclosure so there's some fire resistance. Or you put the whole watertight setup into a firesafe, or bank vault or whatever scheme you have. You can't backup the key, and you can't setup multi-sig or anything else. What if you move across country, or to a new country, or want to travel and take your bitcoin just to have access. Custodial risk has many forms specific to the custodian, and therefore no certain price. It does lower the premium a bit when selling, I would think.

I'm not even going to address all the potential benefits and potential issues with dealing in graded and slabbed coins.

So it seems like there are 2 options in the current market. The current market being that the premiums are low. Hold onto the coin and keep it safe, or peel it and do as you wish. I don't consider selling the coin for near face value to be a viable choice given the shipping and payment risks already outlined.

I've peeled a coin, documented the process and came away with 2 things. First, the coin looks pretty nice still, because I used a very careful process to extract the private key with as little damage to the hologram as possible. I'm hoping that the coin I redeemed holds a higher value in the future compared to other redeemed coins. I'll just keep it as a collectors item and enjoy the fond memories. It's barely worth the effort to sell a peeled coin. The second thing is piece of mind that I can now secure the bitcoin however I deem best. I know that the address trail from redeeming the coin still links back directly to the coin, and that I hold new key and no one else. I'm not factoring in the possibility of trading, or trying to sell the top and buy back lower. That's a whole other form of risk and outside the scope of this writing.

I'm not advocating redeeming the coins, but I am pointing out why people would choose to, in this market right now. If there is really an interest in keeping the coins intact for historical significance, there would be a higher premium.

For everyone that already has a loaded coin and no plans to redeem, then every coin that gets redeemed increases the future potential value of unredeemed coins.

This is perfectly summed up IMO. We have ~5 years before these become popular again. People are being introduced to BTC everyday and then eventually we will get a small percentage that population who will discover and will be interested in some of the BTC collectibles and that's when all of this becomes super exciting. When that time comes it will bring with it so many amazing stories of wow I used to own one of those or I'm glad I kept such and such of those etc....But for now I'm assuming we're all just happy with the rise of BTC. The collectibles will have it's day whenever it's day arrives. Until then we just enjoy the digital ride! Best wishes and success to all!

iBHK8