Quote from: AlcoHoDL on Today at 08:41:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 08:22:51 PM

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I agree that doubling (or some other significant increase) does seem to be pretty likely with whatever value is remaining in bitcoin.. .. surely not guaranteed.. but in the ballpark of decent odds. On the other hand, I have some difficulties in conceptualizing the spending of value before I have it, but whatever, I am playing a broken record if I were to go down that path at this point.

Tongue

Yes, I do believe that Bitcoin current price doubling in 2021 is a very probable outcome indeed, maybe even bearish for many WOers. I would say that reaching (and maintaining) a price level above $100k by the end of 2021 would be an outstanding performance, and will surely become life-changing for many of us.

It's getting so good it's almost scary! Shocked

I doubt that we are very far apart in the way that we are considering this matter, AlcoHoDL, but it still does remain a quite interesting topic because it is somewhat concrete in the sense of both being relevant to this thread and also a question that each one of us should be attempting to figure out in terms of what are we going to do if "it" or some variation of "it" happens whether that be "it" at 2x of current price or the variations of "it" that put additional multiples upon lower and higher expectations of the range.

Sure, if some of us have already been through bubbles in the past, we might be better prepared in terms of both our expectations but also in terms of our already having had established a decent HODL stash (and profit levels) that gives us more options.

Maybe even if I might assert that there is only a 35% chance of 2x from here (which brings us to around $110k), but once the $110k happens or we get close to the $110k, then the higher numbers ranging anywhere between $111k and $1.5million become more and more likely because we had ended up crossing some of the higher thresholds that needed to get through in order to allow for some of the higher numbers to become more possible, so in the end, there does not end up being a great difference between reaching some of the higher thresholds once some of the lower thresholds had been achieved.

Still sticking to my earlier point about not counting my chickens before they are hatched, perhaps I have a bit of a character flaw, but I do still like to consider my plans around the ongoing rising of the 208-week moving average rather than getting too worked up about price peaks that may or may not happen, and such price peaks really do not cause me to do anything other than what is already in my plans to structure various sales on the way up on an ongoing basis, but the rising of the 208-week moving average seems to motivate me in terms of my ongoing increasing budget in terms of what I am able to cash out on a regular basis in terms of wherever that number happens to be. Currently, the 208-week moving average is at about $10,200 and it seems to be going up at about $200 per day.

Sure for some folks the 208-week moving average is NOT going to be enough for them, and they are going to get all worked up about tops but still NOT know what to do because they do not want to be prematurely cashing out into fiat, but for me, the 208-week moving average provides a guilt free amount that I can cash out no matter what the price... and sure, if I were to cash out (still talking theory here because I have not really been cashing out in any kind of meaningful or material way), I can still be authorizing myself an amount to cash out (whether it is for the month, quarter or year), and then attempt to time a BTC price peak for the cashing out, but not get too worked up either, if the peaks are not met (so long as I am not cashing out more than the authorized amount and I am not cashing out when the BTC price might be at or below the 208-week moving average. So in that sense, the 208-week moving average becomes a very comfortable place because it is ongoingly and continuing to move up and it is moving up in dollars in amounts that are increasingly higher and higher giving me more and more assurance about the various richie cushions that I feel that I have.

Regarding other peeps.. I have tentatively come to a conclusion that it is quite likely that many normies are going to need to go through at least a couple of bitcoin cycles before they would have been able to either accumulate enough bitcoin or to have been in the game for a long enough time that the BTC price appreciates enough to both give them a high enough cushion or at least to have transformed from normie status to regular richie status and then to not giving a fuck richie status which surely does seem to be better to get to the not giving a fuck richie status rather than being in either of the the lower two rungs.. which also might not be a bad place to be but getting to the actual not giving a fuck richie status does seem to be a more comfortable place that many of us want to achieve and aspire to and then the greatest problems become regarding how to manage and maintain the funds to keep the status rather than worrying about whether we are going to reach such status.

By the way, I do appreciate that there could be some guys who really struggle with cashflow issues, and it may well take them more than 2, 3 or 4 cycles to actually get to either regular richie status or not giving a fuck richie status. I doubt that some of the matters can be rushed especially if a guy might have only $20 to $50 per month that he would be able to put into bitcoin, and then maybe over the years, he has to continue to try to figure out if there are ways to either cut down spending or to increase income in order to get the monthly bitcoin allocation to higher levels. So, yeah, sometimes there may be some real world factors that make it really difficult to really acquire a meaningful and material position in bitcoin that transforms a regular guy to either richie status or to not giving a fuck richie status.