Quote from: netrin on October 10, 2011, 09:50:23 PM

I don't think the order of events matters very much.

My point in referencing the chronology of assertions of bitcoins being money and the adoption of Bitcoin was how the initial adoption (and even it's creation) of Bitcoin was due to a misunderstanding of what money is. The assertions that it was money combined with the rules of the system turned out to be more of a social contract where people agree to pretend it is money (though most adopters likely believed it actually was money, and weren't making a conscious decision to pretend it was, due to the lack of an explicitly stated agreement, and the lack of serious questioning of whether it really is money among most adopters).

I think that most people that adopted bitcoin more recently also did so because they also believed it was money. Their introduction to bitcoin was a bunch of false information about what bitcoin really is. Few adopters seemed to care that almost no one accepts the "money". Few adopters seemed to care that it provides no direct service. The only thing most adopters knew was that others called it "money" or "currency", and that it had a quickly increasing exchange value. Almost all adopters did not realize that almost everything they knew about Bitcoin was merely a metaphor. It was "catching on" and "becoming mainstream" and they were going to be rich...who cares about reality?

Believing this state of affairs leads one to suspect that it's not going to last, that Bitcoin is just a bubble. Someone that's considering adopting bitcoin and understands these things would likely only acquire bitcoins for as long as they think they can sell them at a profit, if it's within their risk tolerance. Those that already adopted under a false understanding of the system and later come to this realization would also likely change their strategy as far as accepting bitcoins. And these adopters and potential adopters will likely realize that other adopters and potential adopters will eventually come to the same realizations. This means we could end up with a larger and larger percentage of adopters anticipating the end of bitcoin, or at least a very serious decline in future bitcoin prices. Some will decide they're done and cash out and leave. Some will stick around and try to make some more money while it's still possible. Many will remain in denial until it becomes so painfully obvious that it's over, and finally cash out losing almost everything they invested into it. Many will be very vocal in claiming that bitcoin's future is bright and that those cashing out now will be sorry in a few years when they're worth thousands of dollars, not understanding (or worse, fully understanding) that's just speculation at the "wishful thinking" end of the spectrum of possibilities, and isn't even close to being supported by any facts or logic. Some of these irrational attitudes towards bitcoin are very widespread in the community, and the degree of how widespread they are should be an additional hint at bitcoin being a bubble.

The market is doing it's thing, extracting money from those that perform poorly in their investing and giving it to those that perform better. The bubble is going to end, and it's going to line the wallets of some, while the rest are left holding the bag. I know this stuff isn't easy for many bitcoin holders to think about. It would make me sick to my stomach if I were holding a lot of bitcoins bought a couple months ago when prices were much higher.

The Bitcoin developers have the power to change the software and allow bitcoins to possibly become a directly serviceable good. That could give it potential to becoming a commodity and maybe a real money. I wouldn't bet on them actually doing it, though.