Quote from: keithers on March 13, 2014, 04:49:30 AM

Good idea, but you are basing your numbers on a timeframe where there has been barely any volatility. Look at how tight of a range there has been for the high and low in the past week or so, there hasn't been much movement. You should test your algorithm when things start rapidly moving.

It is true that the price is pretty stable right now, but the figures for average error are based on predictions during tens of thousands of points throughout the history of the exchange (bitstamp). The software looks at sections of prices in the past and tries to predict what the price became after those sections. It compares its prediction to the actual price data, and averages the errors for all of the predictions at each point in the historic data. That is how I got the figures 1.35% and 2.62% for average errors.

So basically what I'm saying is that the figures for average error are based on predictions made both during stable time periods and volatile time periods. However, you are still right - it is true that this is much more accurate when the price is less volatile. When the price starts changing a lot, it could have larger errors in predictions. This is mostly the case when real-world events affect the price of bitcoin, since obviously there is no way the software can foresee something like mt gox getting hacked or china changing its policy on bitcoins.

Quote from: g27wr

I wonder what will happen on 3/17 around noon to make the price drop to $318.

I hope it does so I can buy more Grin

Nice easy setup with the site. As a web designer, I'm looking forward to seeing how this works out. Good luck!

Haha crap I think that's an error... gonna have to fix that. Thanks for pointing that out lol

Edit: It's been fixed - thanks again for pointing that out! Gonna have to watch out for problems like that.