Quote from: 20kevin20 on Today at 08:03:24 AM

Damn, I'm having mixed feelings about the outcome of today's market. This is either the beginning of another strong run or the beginning of a drop, because now we're clearly witnessing a double-top unless we go past the high we hit on the 13th of March..

Great morning it is, but tomorrow might suck if the bulls today turn out to be weak! Seems like market signs keep going bullish tho... fuck it, just go all-in and hodl.

What is a double top? Just some made up shit that likely does not apply to bitcoin even if it might be looking like it is applying for some period of time, until it is not?

My thinking is if the price does not go above $61,782, then so what? It will try again later, and largely we have been bouncing at the top of the range so why does it really matter very much if we happen to be 1-2% within the top or 5% within the top, 8% or some other relatively low variation? merely because we go from 8% from within the top to 1% from within the top seems to largely be noise.. and in other words, a BIG SO FUCKING what.

Actually, there should be something that is nice and soothing about the BTC price bouncing between $50k and $61k - whether breaking new ATH or not.. gosh.. does not happen very often to have the BTC price staying at the top of the range for so long, and sure, it could all go to shit, but the odds surely seem to be decent that there is a reason that the BTC price continues to stay at (or near) the top of the range - and that reason seems to be an ability of buy support to catch up and keep up with recent BTC price movements.. is it scary? is it scary? Fuck no. It should be soothing.. but some peeps want to get scared-ie-kitty by what seems to be a pretty decently good kind of ongoing BTC price dynamics.

Hey, by the way, I am a little bit bothered by shitcoins seeming to currently want to pump with bitcoin, but whatever, hopefully at some point some of that froth is going to get purged a bit more whether it is purged with BTC going up, down or sideways, hard to know, but sure in the more recent weeks there has been a bit of pumpening rather than purgening of shitcoins.. and hopefully not too many actually innocent peeps (normies) are getting hurt by participating in such.

Quote from: Phil_S on Today at 08:17:53 AM

Quote from: Richy_T on Today at 12:06:26 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 09, 2021, 04:00:19 PM

Similar to the recent subject about when should we start to measure BTC's price because of course, one of the very first transactions to buy two pizzas for 10k bitcoin might not be as representative as prices a few months down the road when larger numbers of trades are allowed and even locations for conducting such trades become more common.. so in that regard, there is a kind of product of the number of transactions and maybe the passage of time, and I do have some troubles gravitating on any price analysis that uses 2010 data because it seems so sporadic.. but it seems by the time that we are getting to 2011, even if the BTC price discovery is relatively immature, it seems fair enough to start to use that data rather than waiting for 2013 or some further down the road date - at least in my thinking.

I'd agree. I think that, barring contrary evidence, that is perfectly fine to consider as the seminal event in the price discovery for Bitcoin. I've always been wary of wanting to throw out data because it doesn't fit a narrative.

As Wayne Gretzky said, “I skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been.”

When trying to predict "where the puck is going?", it's important to consider its current position and its position 1 second before.

Because you can extrapolate from that data.

Knowing the puck position from 5 minutes ago, or even from the start of the game would not be very useful...

One thing that is off about your attempt to apply a puck analogy to bitcoin's prices is that bitcoin price dynamics are way more complicated than mere momentum. Sure momentum can tell you some things about short term direction, but bitcoin was designed with 4-year cycles and remains a fairly complicated matter in terms of so many factors that affect BTC's price including the evolution and development of its varying network effects. the seven outlined by trace mayor are decent to consider,

And even network effects in bitcoin are NOT the ONLY thing affecting longer-term BTC price dynamics that tell us where the price is likely to be going in a longer timeframe in spite of some noise that seems to be playing out in shorter time horizons (even taking a few years to play out some of the ups and downs that end up bringing BTC prices back to their longer term and likely path.. but not inevitable, either) .... because attempting to incorporate exponential s-curve adoption into your anticipations regarding where bitcoin prices might be going is likely based on longer bitcoin history rather than just picking more recent history which may well end up putting you in the middle of the s-curve rather than attempting to be able to appreciate such s-curve at an earlier (and likely relevant) stage of development that help to spring forth later stages of development (even though quite likely appearing to be quite dwarfed by where the later developments actually ended up going).