Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 13, 2014, 09:02:12 PM

Quote from: Todorius on March 13, 2014, 03:59:47 PM

I haven't got a PhD in computer science, however, I came to realize that bitcoin is so fascinating, that one has to be a fool to neglect the consequences that arise from this technology.

My knowledge of programming and computer science may be limited, but one must be quite narrow minded not to see the broader picture here.

[ ... ]

I for one believe that bitcoin is something much grander than we can even comprehend right now.

As humanity makes the transition from a type 0 civilization (the most primitive type of a civilization on the Kardashev scale) to a planetary civilization, bitcoin could indeed mark a step towards a global economy. Everything becomes globalized and digitalized, so why not currency? Bitcoin is a normal step towards a digitalized world economy.

As I wrote many times, I have no doubts about the technical aspects of cryptographic currency; and if it succeeds at its basic original goal --- a cheap, fast, relatively uncomplicated method for internet payments, especially across borders -- I would be most happy, and certainly will use it.

However, I am more than a bit skeptical about its chances of success; not for technical reasons, but for several economical and political problems that I have yet to see adequately answered. But I have already written about them, and they are not the point here.

I also have a very strong and negative opinion about *bitcoin as an investment*, a topic which is completely distinct from that original goal. But I have already written about that too, and it would be pointless to repeat it here.

I resent this recurrent implication that anyone who does not adore bitcoin must be very stupid, stubborn, or have hidden motives. If anyone is clinging to old beliefs, it is the bitcoiners who still claim that "governments cannot stop bitcoin", altcoins are not viable because of the "network effect" and "first-player advantage", "bitcoin will be extremely valuable because of its limited supply", and so on. Bitcoiners could be forgiven for believing those claims a year ago, but the facts now have categorically disproved them.

In particular, I cannot understand why some bitcoiners still believe that crypto-currency in general, and bitcoin in particular, will free them from governments or banks. If that is what you expect from bitcoin, prepare to be severely disappointed. Governments can render cyptocurrencies useless with a single stroke of the pen; we saw that happen in China and other countries.

More generally, one cannot expect that a technological invention, by itself, will bring fundamental social, political or economic change. The people whose wealth and power could be threatened by such change will fight it, with all the resources that their wealth and power gives them. In particular, technology cannot give to the people of a country any freedoms that their government is denying them.

GPS made a big difference in travel and other fields; Google made information vastly more accessible; Wikipedia put old encyclopedias out of business; and so on -- but none of those inventions changed society in a fundamental way (like, say, the French Revolution, World War II, or the end of Apartheid did). If anything, technological advances only strengthen the existing power structures. Big social/political problems can be solved only with lots of social/political action. With luck, crypto-currencies may have similar impact as those technologies -- but they will have the same limitations.

Then there is the question of the bitcoin "ecosystem", the people and businesses that have collectively taken possession of the technology and/or are exploting it. Sure, in theory bitcoin is a pure abstract concept that is not affected by them; but in practice, for the common people, the word "bitcoin" includes Silk Road, a couple dozen still-unpunished scams (like MtGOX and BitcoinRain), the salesmen who claim that bitcoin is a good hedge against inflation, and much more. It is hard to love the bitcoin skeleton when the meat around it is so rotten...

(For example, several hundred thousand bitcoins are now owned by the MtGOX thief, and there seems to be little hope or will to identify that thief and return the coins to their rightful owners. If bitcoin were to succeed as bitcoiners hope, that thief would own several percent of all the money supply in the world. You expect me to root for that?)

Quote from: Todorius on March 13, 2014, 03:59:47 PM

I've got a PhD in theoretical physics [ ... ]

Well, that may explain it: I understand that to do theoretical physics these days one must learn to suspend one's skepticism first. Wink

By the way, the last time I made a bet with someone, I won a pizza and a ~~bear~~ beer from a theoretical physicist who was absolutely sure that the OPERA results were correct. Grin

You want to bet a pizza and a beer that bitcoin will be at a higher price level a year from now and therefore prove to be a good store of value, investment and hedge on inflation? Name your time frame. Name your toppings. I think you'll be eating crow.