Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 01:28:54 AM

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on May 23, 2021, 05:44:12 PM

even some of the relative noobs (came in 2016 or later)

We are all newbies compared to uie pooie.

Cheesy

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on May 23, 2021, 05:44:12 PM

a friend of mine (basically a no-coiner) who thinks he knows how much I hold said to me last week: cAPS, stop being so greedy. Next time you get to 3 million just SELL and retire. What the fuck is wrong with you?

Hahahaha

I have heard some variation of that too.

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on May 23, 2021, 05:44:12 PM

I have quit thinking about my BTC "position" in terms of what it is worth in USD.

I am not going to go that far.. that's for sure. It is going to take a long time before we do not need to consider relative values of a variety of assets/currencies and what it is that we would like to do with our life or the kinds of aspirations and options that we want to be able to exercise.

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on May 23, 2021, 05:44:12 PM

I have realized I am not in this to "make money".

I find it nice to have made money as a kind of side benefit. So even if making money was not the main focus, it sure is nice to have it as some extra bonus.. It's like you are living in an apartment in a nice city with all your needs being met, and then as a side bonus someone just comes up to you and says, I would like to give you this house with a garden and a garage and you do not need to do anything extra, just live in the house as you wish just because you are such a great person (who happened to HODL bitcoin.. so you deserve this house as a bonus).... I am like: "ok." thanks for the house.. I was happy in the apartment, but this house is even nicer than my apartment and I don't have to go up stairs, and the garage actually fits six cars, so even though I only have one car, it might be nice to have a few extra spots.

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on May 23, 2021, 05:44:12 PM

I am in this to PRESERVE MY WEALTH. And the reason these swings don't do as much to me emotionally as they used to is because I have begun to measure my wealth primarily in the amount of BTC I have. THEN the other things up there come into play. Yes the price fluctuates compared to USD, or houses etc. But I am used to that for now.

To the extent we measure our wealth in BTC, we have lost nothing.

And it makes me happy that the rest of the world sees that as crazy. Not because I want them to HFSP. But because it is a reliable contrarian tell that I am still doing the right thing.

Yeah... this week has stung a little. Because the timeline for me moving into my shack on Maui has been pushed back a little again. C'est la vie... I am not in a huge hurry. And I have very little doubt that the day will STILL get here before I ever thought it would.

I don't feel set back. The 208-week moving average might have lessened its upward curve a wee bit, but it is still moving up pretty damned decently.. it is still currently about $12,500 and still moving up around $100 to $200 each week... So in another year or less it will likely be approaching $20k.. Cannot be complaining about those kinds of numbers... at least from my thinkenings.. which still seems to be rising to the level of feeling that my wealth is preserving because the 208-week moving average keeps moving UPpity... maybe the curve gets a bit more flat from time to time.. but still UPpity it continues.. at least so far in my time in bitcoin and since I have been paying more attention to it in the past couple of years.. to create my new conceptualization of bottoms being more important than tops, even though tops do give some signs about various places to shave off a bit of monies but also ideas about how much higher (if any) such prices happen to be than the 208 week moving average and if the current price continues to be higher than the 208 week moving average, then the assumption is pretty damned strong that the 208 week moving average is either moving up or at minimum staying flat.

Quote from: luckygenough56 on May 23, 2021, 05:49:37 PM

i am a twat apparently

Agreed. You are a twat that seems capable of learning.. at least for the moment.

Wink

Quote from: Biodom on May 23, 2021, 05:53:36 PM

Did it ever went down midcycle (similar position) below the prior ATH?
Nope.

Stop trying to read drama into this situation.. just because you are cheerleading for DOWNity.

You can fuck off with that DOWNity cheerleading.. and attempt to appear as if you are being logical.. blah blah blah.. while propagating nonsense.

Quote from: Biodom on May 23, 2021, 05:53:36 PM

Therefore, unless we are witnessing something entirely new,

Every cycle in bitcoinlandia is something new. Get used to it. Yeah of course, there are patterns but the patterns may well show some unique characteristics from time to time too..

Get a fucking grip.

Roll Eyes

Quote from: Biodom on May 23, 2021, 05:53:36 PM

somewhere around 25K could be a "natural" attractor because it corresponds to roughly 61.8% decline (Fib number)

Yes, of course, maybe $25k could happen and maybe it won't. So fucking what? You have not said anything interesting to suggest that we have to have down before we have up, when probably the odds are way closer to 50/50 for reaching $25k or any other random DOWNity number that you pick than you are making them out to be.

Quote from: Biodom on May 23, 2021, 05:53:36 PM

IF we will go below the prior one (50%, where we are right now, give or take).

Because of this, it either bounce here or at 25K (plus minus a thou or half a thou), IMHO.

Yeah,, we might bounce here, and we might bounce at $25k and we might bounce at some other number too.

Think about the fact that a lot of leveraged longs have already been liquidated a few times.. People are getting scaredie cat to leverage long again (which leverage is dangerous as fuck, anyhow), so instead of leveraging longs, they are likely getting leveraged shorts, and gosh I wonder what kind of fuel leveraged shorts cause?

Anyhow your whole point, we might go down to $25k and we might not. We might bounce from here and we might not. Thanks for that Biodom. That was very very very helpful to consider your bold proposition of what might happen and what might not. Cheesy

Eventually some light at the End of the Tunnel. My Little chart shows that we are above Pivot point now and if BTC stays there for 4 hrs then next5 likely target of Fibonacci is 37,402.