supply should not even be in the top 10 things you look at. price is a representation of value and value is achieved only through utility which is the only thing that matters in a cryptocurrency. you have to see if that project is actually providing any utility or is it just fake to fool the newbies into buying it.
with that said, in altcoin market all bets are off. there is no rule about what coin can or should grow. we see the worst coins go to the top of the list and stay there. coins with huge supplies and massive premines. coins that are centralized, buggy, scam,...
this proves that "analyzing" an altcoin is so much more complicated than just looking at its supply. you have to see who is behind it and how much experience they have in pumping it.
Although what are you saying is true, I believe that with time only altcoins with real utility will stay in the market, scams shit coins will disappear meanwhile they will for sure make some lucky people realise gains but I personally prefer to bet on real value tokens. So this analysis I am talking about comes after doing a real deep fundamental analysis to choose project with real utiity. Once that done if I go and buy theses tokens it would be a mistake, because I need to consider two parameters : entry and exit price. For entry price it's quite easy just look to ATH and make a threshold but for exit price and that's when my analysis could be interesting. If you don't look at supply you could say that ADA could reach 10K but if you apply my analysis you would find out that it's impossible because if on ADA = 10k then the capmarket of ada would be 450 trillions dollars bitcoin's market cap is now 900 millions so then you can have at least an idea on what target you could set by comparing like-sized projects.