Quote from: mikeywith on June 04, 2021, 03:06:14 AM

Solochance is pretty accurate, well, the math is rather simple to be honest, I did confirm that Solochance does the math the way it should be done ( I can't find the post but if you dig in the old posts of this topic you will find it).

With that being said, these are nothing but "statistics", luck variance is proportional to your total power, in reality, mining to a large pool only smooths/levels your payouts, a large pool can have a lot of variances and say 50% luck for 10 or 20 blocks, but in say a week or two it's luck will level up/down close to the 100% mark, a single S9 variance can take years to level out, this makes calculating your chances pretty "useless" even with 3PH when the network size is well above 100EH.

Thanks. Indeed, there is nothing but math on solo chance. I was just curious it if still gives the right numbers.

BTW, I mined Monero for a long time solo, with estimate on block 31 days at the beginning. I doubled hash-power in meantime, and I've finally hit a block after 6 months, with estimate 60 days for my new hash power. so it was really bad luck.

And I'm still dreaming I can hit a bitcoin block with fraction of 1%

insane