Re: "Failure to Understand Bitcoin Could Cost Investors Billions" (Bitcoin's flaws)
Why is Bitcoin an emergent natural order?
I am doubting it as explained below.
Please refute.
I think you all may be highly overestimating the size of adoption Bitcoin can attain.
The one single killer feature I can think of is people around the world avoiding border and banking controls. But I don't think they can set up businesses that can survive if they don't accept paypal or credit cards. Bitcoin doesn't have enough reach and won't before the 2016 global economic crash. Then no one will be making new businesses.
So the more important feature crypto-currency needs is not in Bitcoin. And that is...what do people need in a totalitarian devolution?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=515414.msg5715922#msg5715922
That's what happens when you buy and hold. Cryptocurrency's value increases logarithmically year over year, and there's nothing you or anyone else can do to stop it. Pandora's box has been opened.
Every obstacle the terrified governments of the world throw at crypto is a mere speedbump in the big-picture, long view of the evolution of this new technology.
And trees grow past the moon to ur-anus too.
Rather adoption curves are logistic.
So the question is at what point is Bitcoin fully adopted?
Most people in the world don't give a rats ass about our idealistic goals with decentralized crypto-currency.
They would prefer to use Paypal or a credit card.
So Bitcoin will only continue going up if:
1. More investors drink the Koolaid.
2. There is some compelling mainstream use of Bitcoin that we haven't seen yet.
So it is quite easy to displace Bitcoin, simply invent an altcoin that has some very important use which Bitcoin can't do, and which many people need desperately.
Re: What Bitcoin Has Taught Us About Human Nature
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=514995.msg5715936#msg5715936
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=514995.msg5717832#msg5717832
So you think the masses are going to rise up and say "99% versus 1%, so let's dump our credit cards and use Bitcoin"?
I could see that possibly happening AFTER the global economic collapse that should start to collapse in 2016.
So maybe by about 2017 or 2018, they might start to make that transition in understanding. Right now, they are boiling frogs still in wonderland.
But by 2017 or 2018 it will be kind of too late. An anonymous coin will have already taken over because the wealthy are going to need an anonymous coin to avoid the massive government confiscation coming as the economy implodes.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=516524.msg5718077#msg5718077
I don't disagree.
But do you really think that would cause the masses to leave their credit cards? Of course not! Credit cards protect them, let them make chargebacks, they can't lose their entire balance, they are familiar, etc..
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=68655.msg5718293#msg5718293
Agreed that is seems many are over estimating the US's influence.
Every country is bankrupt with $223 trillion in global debt. They all need to ramp up taxation compliance. There is a big push in the Philippines about it all over the news every day (obviously being pushed by the PTB that control the media).
Coin taint is going to be intertwinded with tax compliance, because the government will say "prove you didn't mine it and sell it to yourself numerous times?".
So you have to prove the identities of whom you bought and sold your coins.
I think you are misunderstanding why most nations follow the US "lead" today, and why it is different with Bitcoin.
The simple reason why many nations follow US rules regarding money is the US if the reserve currency. As such the US can say "you (Russia) have to follow our regulations x, y & z regarding money and if you do not we will remove you from the FED depository system." Without access to the FED entire nations can not trade since the dollar is the world's reserve currency and all trade happens in US dollars.
But with Bitcoin the US has no control and mechanism to enforce its self declared rules. In fact, most nations are actively looking to get out of the thumb of the US, have you picked up a newspaper recently and seen not just Russia's maneuvers but also Chinese, Indian and many others response?
Yet you forgot a small detail. Russia and China banned Bitcoin.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=400235.msg5718375#msg5718375
I am thus questioning your premise that 1 billion people can adopt Bitcoin by end of 2016:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=455141.msg5716065#msg5716065
I think that is utter fantasy. No way that will happen. Absolutely 0.
They would only move in if they are investors, because there is no currency reason for the masses to adopt Bitcoin any time soon.
Thus I conclude Bitcoin will crash in 2014 or 2015. It can't reach 100 million.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=516524.msg5718527#msg5718527
+1
Another very astute post.
I am doubting it as explained below.
Please refute.
I think you all may be highly overestimating the size of adoption Bitcoin can attain.
The one single killer feature I can think of is people around the world avoiding border and banking controls. But I don't think they can set up businesses that can survive if they don't accept paypal or credit cards. Bitcoin doesn't have enough reach and won't before the 2016 global economic crash. Then no one will be making new businesses.
So the more important feature crypto-currency needs is not in Bitcoin. And that is...what do people need in a totalitarian devolution?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=515414.msg5715922#msg5715922
Sigh. Okay you two will miss your chance at 1000X gains. Fine with me. Good luck.
Hey noob, I'm doing okay. I went in pre-100. I've already gained 1400% on my original BTC investment, and completely divested myself from the very dubious, artificially-inflated dollar. You should too.That's what happens when you buy and hold. Cryptocurrency's value increases logarithmically year over year, and there's nothing you or anyone else can do to stop it. Pandora's box has been opened.
Every obstacle the terrified governments of the world throw at crypto is a mere speedbump in the big-picture, long view of the evolution of this new technology.
And trees grow past the moon to ur-anus too.
Rather adoption curves are logistic.
So the question is at what point is Bitcoin fully adopted?
Most people in the world don't give a rats ass about our idealistic goals with decentralized crypto-currency.
They would prefer to use Paypal or a credit card.
So Bitcoin will only continue going up if:
1. More investors drink the Koolaid.
2. There is some compelling mainstream use of Bitcoin that we haven't seen yet.
So it is quite easy to displace Bitcoin, simply invent an altcoin that has some very important use which Bitcoin can't do, and which many people need desperately.
Re: What Bitcoin Has Taught Us About Human Nature
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=514995.msg5715936#msg5715936
Half of the population is dumber than 100 IQ, i.e. basically retarded.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=514995.msg5717832#msg5717832
Let's not jump to conclusions, it just shows us that some people take time to recognize innovative new technology that is disruptive can actually change the status quo for the better.
So you think the masses are going to rise up and say "99% versus 1%, so let's dump our credit cards and use Bitcoin"?
I could see that possibly happening AFTER the global economic collapse that should start to collapse in 2016.
So maybe by about 2017 or 2018, they might start to make that transition in understanding. Right now, they are boiling frogs still in wonderland.
But by 2017 or 2018 it will be kind of too late. An anonymous coin will have already taken over because the wealthy are going to need an anonymous coin to avoid the massive government confiscation coming as the economy implodes.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=516524.msg5718077#msg5718077
We need a coin that has a transaction time rivaling credit card companies, such as a PoS coin.
I don't disagree.
But do you really think that would cause the masses to leave their credit cards? Of course not! Credit cards protect them, let them make chargebacks, they can't lose their entire balance, they are familiar, etc..
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=68655.msg5718293#msg5718293
Does anyone consider that there are 200+ countries in the world, and 96% of their population is not American, and about 60% of the bitcoins are not? Does it have any practical significance?
Agreed that is seems many are over estimating the US's influence.
Every country is bankrupt with $223 trillion in global debt. They all need to ramp up taxation compliance. There is a big push in the Philippines about it all over the news every day (obviously being pushed by the PTB that control the media).
Coin taint is going to be intertwinded with tax compliance, because the government will say "prove you didn't mine it and sell it to yourself numerous times?".
So you have to prove the identities of whom you bought and sold your coins.
I think you are making several mistakes:
1) Most nations are likely to follow the U.S.'s lead for a variety of reasons. Whatever methods the U.S. uses to promote taint will be followed by the aligned nations (or more offensively, our vassal states known colloquially as 'the free world') and the methods used by the non-aligned states will be probably even more draconian.
1) Most nations are likely to follow the U.S.'s lead for a variety of reasons. Whatever methods the U.S. uses to promote taint will be followed by the aligned nations (or more offensively, our vassal states known colloquially as 'the free world') and the methods used by the non-aligned states will be probably even more draconian.
I think you are misunderstanding why most nations follow the US "lead" today, and why it is different with Bitcoin.
The simple reason why many nations follow US rules regarding money is the US if the reserve currency. As such the US can say "you (Russia) have to follow our regulations x, y & z regarding money and if you do not we will remove you from the FED depository system." Without access to the FED entire nations can not trade since the dollar is the world's reserve currency and all trade happens in US dollars.
But with Bitcoin the US has no control and mechanism to enforce its self declared rules. In fact, most nations are actively looking to get out of the thumb of the US, have you picked up a newspaper recently and seen not just Russia's maneuvers but also Chinese, Indian and many others response?
Yet you forgot a small detail. Russia and China banned Bitcoin.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=400235.msg5718375#msg5718375
You can think of dividing the bitcoin adopters to segments like this:
2009 - 100
2010 - 1,000
2011 - 10,000
2012 - 100,000
2013 - 1,000,000
2014 - 10,000,000
2015 - 100,000,000
2016 - 1,000,000,000.
It is a very rough classification but approximately correct. The top of the pyramid has quite good understanding of Bitcoin, the bottom not only doesn't have it but is quite unprepared to understand it deeply even if explained.
The press articles cater to this "2016 segment" that does not have bitcoins and will not have them this or the next year. This information is mostly factually incorrect and very shallow. Because the press articles are read by the general public, they cannot be targeted to 0.1-1% of the population. They have to be poor as shit
2009 - 100
2010 - 1,000
2011 - 10,000
2012 - 100,000
2013 - 1,000,000
2014 - 10,000,000
2015 - 100,000,000
2016 - 1,000,000,000.
It is a very rough classification but approximately correct. The top of the pyramid has quite good understanding of Bitcoin, the bottom not only doesn't have it but is quite unprepared to understand it deeply even if explained.
The press articles cater to this "2016 segment" that does not have bitcoins and will not have them this or the next year. This information is mostly factually incorrect and very shallow. Because the press articles are read by the general public, they cannot be targeted to 0.1-1% of the population. They have to be poor as shit
I am thus questioning your premise that 1 billion people can adopt Bitcoin by end of 2016:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=455141.msg5716065#msg5716065
I think that is utter fantasy. No way that will happen. Absolutely 0.
They would only move in if they are investors, because there is no currency reason for the masses to adopt Bitcoin any time soon.
Thus I conclude Bitcoin will crash in 2014 or 2015. It can't reach 100 million.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=516524.msg5718527#msg5718527
@all
you must also remember that:
Competing altcoins have never tried the tactic of fiat injection as incentive to switch.
No competing altcoin has ever had the power to say all other competing coins are black market, but our altcoin is governent backed.
I can see how this is unsavoury, it is to me also. But to deny the advantage that government has is rather a narrow minded attitude.
Remember not every head on the planet is as libertarian as our good selves.
you must also remember that:
Competing altcoins have never tried the tactic of fiat injection as incentive to switch.
No competing altcoin has ever had the power to say all other competing coins are black market, but our altcoin is governent backed.
I can see how this is unsavoury, it is to me also. But to deny the advantage that government has is rather a narrow minded attitude.
Remember not every head on the planet is as libertarian as our good selves.
+1
Another very astute post.