Quote from: El duderino_ on June 22, 2021, 06:54:55 PM

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1407403983023460354?s=20

Hahahahaha

Willy woo is both a smart guy and has great presentation of the subject matter, but remember he had a bet that was likely lost about a month ago, which was something like : "the BTC price will not go below $45k this calendar year" - something like that.

No problem really because if you are a public figure who draws squiggly predictive power lines about the BTC price, ultimately there's going to be a bet in there. I would imagine him to be a pretty gracious loser.

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on June 22, 2021, 09:10:32 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 22, 2021, 08:54:13 PM

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on June 22, 2021, 03:17:56 PM

I will say an old friend is texting me chiding me for not selling and buying my retirement house. That's always a good sign, or then again... maybe he is right this time?

That is very funny... I am presuming that this "friend" is a nocoiner? Sometimes friends might end up "knowing too much", and probably you deserved a certain level of chiding anyhow because you likely had been "rubbing in" your friend's ongoing lack of taking you (or your BTC investment) seriously. So here's his opportunity to get back at you, no?

I mean aren't you suffering cAPSLOCK? You are only around 3x UP from September and you could have been 6.5x up.. NOT to mention that your costs are likely way the hell below $10k anyhow, so we are just considering what has happened to your portfolio since September until now, and gosh it hardly seems like any kind of suffering situation.. except for someone wanting to chide about ONLY being up 3x from September rather than 6.5x, and I suppose that the dweeb friend also is suggesting that you "better sell now" while you are still up.. and trying to knock some common sense into you (that is the common sense of a nocoiner, which is hardly common sense when we really consider the matter).

Of course I suffer a little during these times. Even though I have learned to avoid as much of the pain as possible and have grown a bit more spine than I had way back when I also have more to lose now than ever. If you had told me I would ever been in a position to lose or gain what I can lose or gain in a single day I would have been astonished. But I would also have been delighted.

A problem I would like to have, as I say.

But that does not change the fact that all of our "numbers" have been up 2x what they currently are, and that is painful.

My friend will never reveal to me whether he has bought Bitcoin or not, though I told him about it at sub 4 digit prices. He did buy some ripple and Bcash I know that... *sigh*. I am hoping he has bought a little Bitcoin too. But I think he has done OK in the stock market. He is just frustrated that he thinks I have enough to retire and that not having done so means I am greedy.

For me the equation is simple. The amount I have to gain by putting off retirement is enough to make it an easy choice to be able to still work, and even throw the occasional couple K at Bitcoin on days like today. I bought the last time we were near 30, and today. Actually today I got it at 29980. HA!

I am a simple man, who leads a simple life. My descendants will have wealth they cannot believe if I am right about this bitcoin thing... I often wonder if that is a good thing...

Well am often amazed in terms of how the value magnifies upon itself (also known as compounding), so there are a lot of traditional financial folks (warren buffet types) who said that they were having some troubles wrapping their head around some aspects of bitcoin because they like to be able to earn dividends and a lot of bullshit like that.. but sometimes the value of the corn is appreciating so god damned fast that you may well not even be able to spend it as fast as it grows - absent some kind of major change in your consumption style.

One thing about your current cashflow and taking that fuck you step is for sure having the assurance that you have enough, so yeah, maybe there does come a point where you do have enough.. but you are so god damned stubborn about NOT selling your bitcoin that you end up having to wait another cycle when you surely already had enough to act now or close to now.

Of course, no one is going to be able to conclude the specifics, except for you, including that you have to weigh both financial considerations and psychological comfort levels in terms of projecting out your cashflow, including accounting for the worser case scenarios in bitcoin. I, personally, believe that it is way easier to accomplish by balancing between cash and bitcoin, but sure other people believe that they can use properties or even annuities to be able to lock in a kind of certain cashflow for the rest of their lives.

I am not opposed to any of the varying ways of considering the matter... because of course, you should be able to add up the varying amounts, and come to a conclusion.. which also includes knowing that you have a cashflow from a job that would be reduced if you were to pull the fuck you lever.. and then a question if the appreciation (or value of your bitcoin) is sufficiently enough to offset whatever cashflow it is that you would be using.. including that you might have to ensure that you have health insurance coverage or that you cannot draw from certain kinds of funds until you reach a certain age.. and of course, if you are not contributing into such funds, then those funds will be smaller when you reach such age and become eligible for drawing.

I have a fund that has been shrinking in value because I have not been contributing into it since 2013 - but I had already calculated that there was going to be a reduction in the amount that I was going to be able to receive because of my 2013 decision to stop contributing into the fund.. but at the same time, I see that the shrinking of that fund is seeming to be more than I had anticipated - meaning that the amount that I am going to be able to draw on a regular basis is less and less and less and even showing that I had made some errors in my calculations - but at the same time, it is a good thing that I had been investing into BTC since 2013, and so even though I had considered my BTC investment to be a potential way to supplement my other kinds of income down the road, I had also figured that even if BTC had gone to zero, I would still be able to sufficiently survive on the various sources of income that I already had and some of them that would become available at later dates.

One surprising aspect of the bitcoin investment is that it seems to be making up for some of the shortfalls that I am now calculating in the various income streams that I had projected out, so yeah, even though I had figured that there might have been some needs to live on a budget in the future, my bitcoin investment has allowed me to be able to live way better now and even building up to my future budget because there is so much surplus in the bitcoin investment. Many of us who have invested in bitcoin through the years realize based on personal experiences so long as we had erred on the side of maintaining a decent BTC stash and spending from other sources first, then the BTC has outperformed all other assets.. I mean my BTC outperformed all of my other categories of assets combined - even with the to-date 66% correction (down to $28,600) that there seems to be a sufficient bounce back to put us around a 47% correction territories as I type ($34,300).

I guess my point was that I was hoping that bitcoin was going to supplement some potential short comings in my finances in my future so maybe I could perhaps buy something nice here or there at various points or maybe not have to worry about short-falls in cashflow, so maybe I could use the BTC to buy a new car or go on a vacation or some things like that might have been tighter on the budget or to drive a luxury car rather than a standard car. .. but when the BTC value becomes the size of all of the sources of income combined and even now at a kind of 4x more than the size of all the other cashflows combined, then there seems to be some ability to justify shaving some value off, if needed and not worrying about it.. because not ONLY is the value of the BTC enough to serve its purpose it is multiple times excessive from the original purpose that it was contemplated to serve.. and yeah if there are also irresponsibilities where the prices of everything goes up 2x or 3x from where you were contemplating, that seems to not be a problem, either.