Quote from: Fortify on June 23, 2021, 06:35:35 PM

Quote from: yurgee on July 02, 2020, 09:52:21 AM

Bitcoin evangelist has always attributed Bitcoin to be a safe-haven asset, while extreme fanatics believe that Bitcoin is far better than gold. Bitcoin was born in the wake of the 2008 financial crash as a libertarian currency and as an instrument that could help cushion the event of a future financial crisis.

Since Bitcoin is purely a speculative risk asset, many people have doubted its position as a purported safe-haven asset, I am not one of them anyways. However, since Bitcoin hasn't witnessed a global recession yet, I feel Bitcoin hasn't sufficiently defended its narrative as a safe-haven asset.

As the possibility of a global recession intensifies, what's your take on the possible performance of Bitcoin? will it go down with the traditional market or will it defend its name? I am very much interested to know.

It feels like it is impossible for Bitcoin to ever become a safe haven asset, because while it has shown resilience against bugs and hacking attacks, it lacks the key ingredient of stability in the price. People who buy gold will see peaks and troughs in the value of it, however if you go back long enough then you see a baseline trend going upwards. Since Bitcoin has only been around for just over a decade, it is almost impossible to judge that base line valuation. It's hardly a "safe haven" if you buy in at $50k and when you need to go spending it, the value has dropped in half. Things like cash accounts or bonds are the real safe haven people think of when discussing secure assets that are fairly predictable even if inflation will slowly eat them away.

I mean Bitcoin follows a log chart and volatility is statistically declining with every single cycle that occurs. Bonds are in a massive bubble and I believe they are about to burst so I do not consider them to be safe havens at all even if they traditionally have performed that function. Bitcoin is clearly a safe haven asset but maybe in a different way than others in the past. My guess that in 2-3 more cycle Bitcoin's volatility will have declined to a point in which it will be palatable to use as an every day currency for all.