Quote from: mikeywith on Today at 02:10:12 AM

Quote from: Quickseller on June 27, 2021, 11:25:44 PM

so the Chinese government could seize outgoing shipments of miners as they are being shipped overseas, and the Chinese government could force mining manufacturers to produce additional ASICs for the Chinese government.

Just so you know there is no "seize" in this, not sure what the news is saying but the truth of the matter is I have helped a few clients order a few hundred miners from China in the past few days and some of the gears have already passed China borders with no issue, the Chinese government told the miners in some regions to stop mining, so mining is "illegal" but owning/selling/buying Asic gears is NOT, so if the government is going to seize anything (which I doubt) it will be a small percentage of gamblers who still mine in "secret", but that is just a small number of miners which doesn't make a huge difference.

It is good to know that ASICs are moving out of China without issue. Obviously I was speculating when I suggested that miners might get seized by the Chinese government. I would point out that there are no property rights or due process in China when dealing with the government. It also should not be a secret that the Chinese government is hostile to Bitcoin, in part because it makes it more difficult for them to control their people.

Quote from: mikeywith on Today at 02:10:12 AM

Quote

Do you have a link to some of these studies? I would be interested to read them. Thanks in advance.

Here is one > https://cbeci.org/mining_map

There is honestly a ton of evidence that suggests China "had" more than 50% of the hashrate, it's all over the place you don't even need to research it, after this mess is over, the numbers will change but we don't know to what extent, it will take some time for the data to be accurate again.

Interesting read. As they noted, they assumed that the distribution of miners is representative of the three pools they surveyed, and this may or may not be true.

Quote from: mikeywith on Today at 02:10:12 AM

On a side but related note, we are about to have one of the largest difficulty drops in Bitcoin's history.

The difficulty dropped by 18% in 2011, and since then, it has never dropped as much. From the looks of it, the difficulty will drop by more than 18%, making it the biggest difficulty drop in history, and there is a decent chance it will drop by the maximum 25%.

Quote from: kano on Today at 12:30:21 AM

Quote from: Quickseller on June 27, 2021, 11:25:44 PM

...
If the Chinese government has control of 50% of the mining equipment that exists, it can potentially execute a 51% attack against bitcoin. Much of the production of ASICs is done in China, so the Chinese government could seize outgoing shipments of miners as they are being shipped overseas, and the Chinese government could force mining manufacturers to produce additional ASICs for the Chinese government. There is also a chip shortage worldwide, so manufacturers outside of China are going to have problems with production.
...

Well one must remember that the only 51% attack they can do that anyone would care about would be to control a % of what transactions are confirmed.
So while that is indeed an issue, it's not a case of what many seem to think that a large mining cartel could change the rules of Bitcoin - coz they can't - doing that just produces an altcoin and a matching drop in the Bitcoin hash rate.

A 51% attack could result in major bitcoin related businesses suffering losses after falling victim to double spends. It could also result in all other miners getting any of their found blocks being orphaned.

Quote from: kano on Today at 12:30:21 AM

However, since the ASIC chips used in miners are made in Taiwan, not China, I suspect that China invading Taiwan to make this happen would have much more far reaching effects than just Bitcoin

The chips are made in Taiwan, but I believe the miners themselves are manufactured in mainland China.