Quote from: mocacinno on Today at 10:10:01 AM

I'm not a specialist here, but i did have a quick glance at your table.

What i'm concerned about is that your worst case scenario isn't what i would pick as a worst case scenario...
Also, i don't see your power bill into this picture, everything is calculated in USD and EUR, so it's very hard for me to see if you included this factor into your calculation.

You do have a scenario where your diff increases to 25T, but you couple it with a 47% price increase.
You also have scenario's with a price decrease, but you couple it to a "mild" difficulty inrease.
And you don't take into account those antminers tend to break quite often and only have a 3 month warranty (if you buy them brand new).

Also, i started searching for place where you could buy an S19 pro. They weren't sold by bitmain anymore (apparently), and the few seamingly reputable stores that still had them in stock asked prices ranging from 8000€ to 15000€/piece. I'm not sure if you'd be able to buy 8 S19 pro's + cables + shelves + network + PSU + A/C + import tax + S&H for 56.000€

Now, for what it's worth, i would probably go for a different "worst case" scenario:
8 miners * 8000 € =64.000 €
21% import tax = 13.000€
S&H, shelves, PSU's, cables, A/C, fans, switches,... = 5000€
fixing machines, keeping the running for > 2 years, replacing broken ASIC's = 15000€

total hardware cost =~ €100k

total power draw = 26 Kw

total hashrate = 880 Th/s

Difficulty => we know there's enough hardware out there to push the diff back up to 25T. We also know the year prior to China's decision, the difficulty had an increase of ~7T in one year. Since your ROI will defenately be more than 1 year, i'd go for an average difficulty of 30T. You have to realize the odds are pretty big that turned off hardware falls into the hands of somebody mining at a much cheaper power rate than you, and this person will probably buy thousands of second hand units making the price he pays per unit a lot cheaper than you buying 8 or 10 units.

Price => Eventough the price might rise (it's actually very probable), we're making a worst case scenario here... The current price is ~$32k, but the price has drastically decreased in the past aswell... so let's assume the bottom price is €20k in >2 years

Let's see our income in one year, with a writeoff for your hardware of 2 years :
Hardware costs: €50k
Power costs: 26Kw * 24h * 365 days * 0.16€/kwh = ~€36,5k
Total cost: €86,5k

Income @ 880Th, 30T diff, including a 1% pool fee:
(((((Hashrate (hashes/sec) * average block reward * 600 * 65535) / 2^48) / Difficulty) * 6 * 24) * 0.99) *365
(((((880.000.000.000.000* 6.25 * 600 * 65535) / 2^48) / 30.000.000.000.000) * 6 * 24) * 0.99) *365 = 1.33 BTC/year

That's an income of ~€26k/year. That's not enough to pay your electricity costs...

Now, once again: this is my worst case scenario... It's a little far fetched, but not impossible...

Thank your very much for your detailed answer and the provided calculation, definitely opened my eyes. Appreciate it. So, in conclusion, BTC mining is in your opinion not worth it in Germany as far as the electrcity costs stay > 0.10 kWh, right?