Quote from: Saidasun on Today at 02:53:53 PM

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff_Original on Today at 02:08:02 PM

I like bullish BTC price predictions as much as the next guy, but if we just switch off our critical thinking whenever somebody says something nice about bitcoin, we are more of a religion or cult than anything else. Which is not needed imo, as the realistic scenario for bitcoin holds plenty of upside and promise.

You hit the nail right on the head I find that supporters of Bitcoin are too quick to believe something just because its saying something positive about Bitcoin. Most predictions that people say are not accurate and have no evidence to back up their prediction other than just a gut feeling. You deserve more merit for shining a light on that mental flaw that the Bitcoin community seems to have.

yeah right...

Nonsense.

There is all kinds of back and forth in the bitcoin community (to the extent that such a thing exists), and sure some ideas are better than others, and Hal had a lot of good ideas, including his back of the napkin 2009 idea of $10million per coin as a ballpark idea of where we might be going if things play out well.. sure, there are aspirations built into that, and anyone worth his weight in salt would appreciate that nothing is certain, and even our pal, Hal, was providing what he considered a better case scenario rather than a certainty.

Sure, there are dumbasses who ascribe probabilities as certainties and when they see a chart, they believe that it is based on certainties.. but when we engage in various dialogues and share ideas, hopefully more and more people learn how to assign probabilities to whatever projections that they make including that our pal, Hal was engaged in such a probabilities endeavor.. so fuck off with the nonsense that he was either describing certainties or that too many folks in the BTC community are assigning too much probability to that kind of projection, even though there seem to be decent chances that we could well end up there (at $10million per coin) either the next cycle or a few cycles down the road or perhaps 20 or 50 years from now..

Probability also means that we may well not make it there.. but a lot of us can appreciate the asymmetric bet of bitcoin and be quite satisfied with even flat BTC performance even if we are thinking about possibilities that it could go much higher, we are also o.k. with flat (or some variation of flat), if that is how the BTC-landia cards end up playing out.... but an asymmetric bet is still an asymmetric bet, so many who merely invested small amounts of value into bitcoin ended up doing quite well based on the asymmetric way that bitcoin has played out and is likely to continue to play out... so you better fucking get some bitcoin (and you even don't need that much) and you may well have a decent hedge in the event that bitcoin ends up being a decently performing UPpity investment.. which it seems to be and there is really no strong evidence or logic in the contrary.. especially in recent times, the bullish case for bitcoin seems to be getting stronger and stronger with the passage of time, Lindy Effect and all that mumbo jumbo that some of you dumbass naysayers and party poops are failing/refusing to appreciate the value of such because you believe that bitcoin folks are too much covered with rosey-eyed glasses (which is near pure baloney to be making such nonsense assertions that is likely based on anecdotal evidence rather than really reflecting the reality of the matter).

Quote from: Saidasun on Today at 03:38:33 PM

Quote from: shahzadafzal on Today at 03:23:24 PM

Well he didn’t say it will happen but he stated it as “an amusing thought experiment”. On other hand if that happens and Bitcoin becomes the standard global currency in the world then measuring bitcoin against dollar will be as useless as it’s today… 1 BTC = 1 BTC

Anyway yes it might be insane but not when you take it as an amusing thought experiment.

Quote from: https://www.mail-archive.com/cryptography@metzdowd.com/msg10152.html

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

He does say that if Bitcoin were to become the dominant payment system of the world that the total value of the currency would equal the total value of ALL wealth in the world which is complete horse shit. To me he tries to cover up that quite inaccurate statement by prefacing that its just a thought experiment well even if that thought experiment did materialize and become a reality Bitcoin would not be the equivalent of all the wealth in the world.

So what?

Need to tweak his $10million a bit.. and likely bitcoin is going to be worth more than $10million per coin, not even accounting for dollar deflation..

So sure, maybe his figuring of wealth in the world was not very particularized, because it is going to be much more difficult to have completely nuanced valuations until going back and forth a bit in terms of what kinds of value might gravitate into BTC..

In other words, you seem to be attempting to ascribe Hal as if he were an idiot, and surely no one is really going to be saying that the value of a house is going to completely flow into bitcoin, even if it might have sounded like that is what he was saying.. same thing with a gold bar... there are going to be a lot of aspects of gold that flow into bitcoin, but there will likely still be value in gold, whether industrial, jewelry, and even some storage of value aspect, even if gold might end up going down to $10 per ounce or whatever relative to bitcoin's $100 million or whatever it ends up reaching at various points in its life cycle of gravitating value into it.

Protip: We should not be presuming napkin math to be disingenuine merely because we believe that it ended up being wrong, and it really has not been shown to have been wrong, even if it did not ascribe various nuances correctamente.

But hey, you Hal the pal naysayers gonna hate.. even hate our hero and buddy Hal the pal. He was a smart, insightful and very helpful to the BTC space mother-fucker (not literally).

So you better take back all your negative thoughts about hal our pal.... you fucks who are hating on a guy with a lot of good ideas.. and currently ded as we know to be mortals happen to be a legend.. since you have to die to become a legend, no?